Peace in exchange for the territory: Are Ukrainians ready for concessions for a quick end of the war

Sociologists say that in Ukraine there is an increase in the number of those who are ready for territorial concessions in exchange for the end of the war. In half a year, their number increased by 6%, and in a year by 8%. The focus understood how much this trend causes negative anxiety and which could have caused such changes.

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has published the results of the study whether Ukrainians are ready for territorial concessions for the early end of the war. The survey was conducted by telephone interviewing in the period from September 29 to October 9, it was attended by 1010 respondents who live in all regions of Ukraine (except Crimea).

According to the results of the study, the number of those who agree to territorial concessions in order to achieve peace and maintain Ukraine's independence are increasing in Ukraine. "Compared to May 2023, the proportion of those who are ready to agree to territorial concessions to achieve peace and preservation of Ukraine's independence increased from 10% to 14%. At the same time, the vast majority of the population - 80% (in May 2023 - 84%).

The confidence that no territorial concessions are acceptable, even if the war lasts longer and there will be other threats, " - said in the Prescribing KIIS. The most dynamic public opinion has changed in the inhabitants of the East and South of Ukraine - 13% to 22% and 8% to 21%, respectively. Sociologists say that the statistical error did not exceed 3. 4%. In addition, you should add some systematic deviation here.

However, the KIIS believes that the results retain high representativeness and allow to analyze the public sentiment of the population. According to the KIIS, it can be assumed that the dynamics of changes in public mood has a certain tendency to grow, albeit small. For example, in May 2022, the percentage of territorial concessions was 10%, in December of that year it decreased to 8%. Since February 2023, this figure increased from 9% to 14% in October.

The constant duty of "betrayal" with "victories" and fatigue from the war imprint on public sentiment. Obviously, in those regions of Ukraine where the war is far, the percentage of those who are ready to fight for the last will be greater than those who live under daily shelling. Therefore, it is difficult to look for some trend, but this thought will be used by Russian propaganda. In the end, such studies are needed, but should be submitted with a professional explanation of each indicator.

Director of the Sociological Service "Ukrainian Barometer" Viktor Nevzhenko notes that this study is not representative, so it is impossible to evaluate its results. The published data do not correspond to the true situation in the country, and KIIS is very risky. "It is almost impossible to conduct a nationwide survey during the war - now some Ukrainians have traveled outside the country, some are in occupation or on the front line.

We have three different Ukraine in essence to do sociological research," he explains Focus. Volodymyr Fesenko, Chairman of the Board of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta", also draws attention to the fact that this survey is very simplified with ready -made answers, so it is not objective. "The longer the war continues and the realization that no side has an advantage, the more such thoughts in society will occur.

The war will end with the end of hostilities, not some concessions," he said. At the same time, the executive director of KIIS Anton Hrushetsky believes that changes in public trends require special attention and analysis. First of all, it is necessary to take into account the context of events in Ukraine, and then to build a "theory of betrayal". Public sentiment in Ukraine changes not only from filling the information field and trends on social networks.

In the second year of the war, there was a certain awareness of the situation, and expert statements about "two to three months" no longer work. According to political scientist Alexei Koshel, the mood of Ukrainians can be explained by a number of factors that have developed recently. "First, it is a seasonal factor in winter, the threat of attacks on the energy sector, the lack of heat and electricity.

Secondly, previous months the population had great expectations from the scale , Kherson, the left bank of Kherson region. Another factor is the criticism of the US and the European institutions for corruption in Ukraine and the fight against it, "he says Focus. The expert also notes that the figure of 4% is insignificant. In addition, in the sample already from 1-2 thousand respondents sociologists give an error of 2%. Therefore, this study of KIIS and should look for some trend or dynamics.