Ukraine can win a war without returning territories - NYT

According to journalists, representatives of Ukraine insist that they fight for the return of territories. But in Washington, they are increasingly saying that the war goes not so much for land as for the future of Ukraine in NATO and the EU. It seems unlikely that Russia will capture large territories in Ukraine in the coming months, because poorly prepared forces cannot break through Ukrainian defense, already strengthened by Western ammunition.

About it writes The New York Timesv in the spring and early summer of the Russian Federation tried to seize the territory outside Kharkiv and restore the offensive in eastern Ukraine, against the backdrop of Avdiivka. The Russian Federation suffered thousands of casualties during such an offensive, but received a few new territories. Russia's problems indicate a significant change in the dynamics of war, which in recent months has been profitable to Moscow.

The gradual promotion of the Russian Federation slows through the fortified positions of Ukrainians. The coming months will be difficult for Ukraine. But NATO representatives, which gathered this week in Washington to the 75th anniversary of the Alliance, may not argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.

"The Ukrainian forces are stretched, ahead of the difficult months of combat clashes, but the large -scale breakthrough of the Russian Federation is now unlikely," - explained Michael Kafman, a senior researcher of the program from the Russian Federation and Eurasia of the Carnegie Foundation. Leaders at the summit are expected to promise new financing to Ukraine, will announce plans for supply and support the promise that Ukraine will eventually become a full ally.

The latter became the central point of war, even more important than the return of captured territories. Representatives of Ukraine insist that they are fighting for the return of territories, but more and more officials of the United States believe that the war is primarily coming to the future of Ukraine in NATO and the EU. The main surprise may be US policy on Ukraine after the election this fall.

Despite the fact that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is unable to seize most of Ukraine, the prospects that Kiev is being won more territories, also decreases. Eric Charamellla, the expectorant of intelligence services, believes that the last 18 months have shown that neither the Russian Federation nor Ukraine has the opportunity to significantly change the front line.

According to him, the United States and allies will need long -term investments to allow Ukraine to retain their positions and demand Russian troops. Such a scenario of events is not yet guaranteed, so Western leaders need to focus on Ukraine's integration into European and transatlantic security structures. In the EU last month, negotiations on Ukraine's accession were agreed.

Although NATO is not yet ready to send an invitation to the Alliance to Ukraine, this week the Allies are going to approve a formula that practically promises that Kiev will become part of the Alliance. Representatives of the event try to avoid the scenario of last year's summit in Vilnius, when it was stated that "the future of Ukraine is NATO", but there were no specific steps.

Diplomats called the declared confused wording "verbal salad", and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not hide dissatisfaction with the fact that there were no specific terms for Ukraine's accession to NATO. Prior to a full -scale invasion, the prospect of Ukraine's accession to NATO seemed very distant. Partners of Ukraine did not want to provoke Russia or take significant security obligations.

To keep Ukraine from NATO membership was the purpose of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but, by irony of fate, his invasion approached such a perspective. During the peace talks in April 2022, Moscow insisted on neutrality for Ukraine and ban on any foreign military assistance. Since then, Ukraine has become even more focused on integration with Europe. According to journalists, Russia has seized most of Russia in the first year of the war.

"American officials in private conversations say that it is almost impossible for Ukraine to return all its territories, but may require greater European integration if it has more success in the battlefield," analysts say. Some officials say that even without a formal return of territories, Ukraine can still win the war by approaching NATO and Europe. The US recognizes that the Russian Federation can capture even more territories with certain strategic changes, such as general mobilization.

The Ukrainian leadership opposes compromises on the country's territorial integrity. According to the results of a recent summit in Switzerland, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Kremlin may at least start negotiations tomorrow, provided the troops were removed from all the occupied territories. On June 19, the head of the President's office in a comment on Bloomberg said that the preparation for the next peace summit had already begun and may have come to him.