The Armed Forces Victory in the Black Sea: Why the Russian Federation does not start the caliber missiles in Ukraine and what to wait in the winter

The Ukrainians won a real victory in the Black Sea: they restrained the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation and opened the grain corridor themselves, says Yale University historian Timothy Snyder in a fresh release of British Telegraph. "Military successes have passed by TV screens, many did not pay attention to them.

But this is really a significant phenomenon, to the general surprise, Ukraine was holding back the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation and opened a corridor for grain commercial trade," the expert said. Former captain of the UK royal fleet, Tom Sharp, the Daily Telegraph, mentioned the successful Armed Forces combat operation on September 13: that day, British Storm Shadow missiles flew to the Sevastopol Marine Plant in the Southern Bay. The analyst focuses on preparing for attack.

The Ukrainian special forces were destroyed by Russian Neptune missiles a few weeks before the operation. As a result, Storm Shadow missiles almost completely burned the expensive landing ship "Minsk" and destroyed the submarine "Rostov-on-Don", the carrier of four missiles "Caliber". As a result of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other ships had to be taken to the village of Verkhnosadovo in the Nakhimov district of Sevastopol.

A number of successful attacks have led to the fact that the landing ships and submarines with the Caliber missiles available from combat are available for inspection. The list of losses of the Black Sea Fleet is expanding. If the Russians remove the fleet from Sevastopol back to Novorossiysk, it will hit the line of supplying their troops in the Crimea, Sharp said.

The Armed Forces operations in the Black Sea, conducted without the support of Western aviation, emphasize the real power of Ukrainian intelligence. Experts may be able to achieve the ultimate goal - the liberation of the Crimea, writes in the column for the Hill Professor for the Study of National Security of the Russian Federation at the Institute for Strategic Studies of the US Army College Stephen Black. "The marine war is strongly connected with land.

Washington must see this connection and provide Ukraine with appropriate weapons," he adds. On December 1, Ukrainian journalist Roman Shrik presented an assessment of the level of use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of rockets of maritime base "Caliber" and X-101/555. Judging from the data, in October and November 2023 there were no launches of these shells at all.

In total, a maximum of 100 such missiles per month is produced in Russia, so about 200 long -range missiles can accumulate in two months. In December, the invaders can produce up to 200 launches per month. After that, the army of Russia will have to return to the regime "produced - launched", complements Shrik. "We have already seen 200 rockets a month at the end of 2022 and May-June this year. The main change for the year-in the Russian Federation there were more" Shahmed ".

It is not worthwhile to be worried, they are no longer, but the combined launches of rockets and drones,"- He emphasizes. There are at least two rocket totonia in the Sevastopol area, but they are not used for targeting targets in the rear of Ukraine. One of the ships performs the tasks of air defense against Ukrainian drones-Kamikadze, says the focus of the Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Vladislav Seleznev.

Occupation troops were brought to the Black Sea for combat duty and Admiral Makarov frigate, which carries a minimum of eight cruise missiles. Other rocket launchers are waiting in the bay of Novorossiysk, but the danger of "caliber" launches is stored in Ukraine. The rocket can affect the targets up to 2,500 kilometers. "If rockets are launched from Novorossiysk, they can quietly fly to Western Ukraine," the expert explains.

The Russians wait for the deterioration of weather, severe frosts and increased loads on the Ukrainian power system, so rockets are preserved. In addition to critical energy infrastructure, the enemy can target large railway units, bridges and other important logistics paths, says Vladislav Seleznev. Now the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have focused on the attacks of Shahd drones to calculate Ukrainian air defense systems.

During massive rocket strokes, the invaders will try to get around them, the military says. According to estimates of the ship-built-building engineer, the naval expert Volodymyr Zablotsky, it is almost unrealistic to launch Caliber missiles from Sevastopol. The city was in the area of ​​reach of Ukrainian missiles. The northwestern part of the Black Sea is also completely in the area of ​​defeat of Ukrainian rockets and drones.

The military itself often make mistakes that are on the Armed Forces. For example, they leave the rocket ships on an open raid, making them light targets. Due to this on the night of August 4, a large landing ship of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation "Olengorsky Gornyak" was damaged near Novorossiysk. The projectile reserves of the Russians were quite detached after a strike on the railway in Dzhanka in early March 2023. Then the Russians carried a lot of winged rockets "Caliber NK".

Another important point is the weather. Permanent storms in the Black Sea do not allow Russian ships to work, " - says Focus expert. Recall Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the entry of new warships into the Navy of the Russian Federation. By the end of 2023, three submarines will appear in the occupiers Shooting Caliber missiles. Focus earlier wrote that Russia has accumulated more than 800 missiles, including "Calibers", "Iskanders" and others.