The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation started off the offensive in three directions due to Western delay - ISW

Analysts believe that Russian troops will try to take advantage of two opportunities that have opened after the start of simultaneous offensive operations - sometimes before the spring thaw and ambiguous dynamics of Western assistance. Delayed Western aid enabled the Russian troops to start an offensive at three sections of the front at the same time. The Institute of War Study (ISW) writes this in his report for February 18.

According to analysts, on February 18, Russian troops conducted at least three offensive operations: after the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka and Russian statements about control of the entire city, ISW and several Ukrainian and Western sources evaluated that delays in Western security, name Critically important air defense systems did not allow Ukrainian troops to protect Avdiivka from Russian offensive actions.

"The critical shortage of equipment supplied by the West, and fears of complete cessation of US military assistance forced Ukrainian troops to reduce the number of material resources throughout the front, which probably prompted Russian troops to take advantage of the situation and start limited offensive operations outside the Avdiivka area," said analytics, " .

According to experts, Russian troops began an offensive outside of Avdiivka - along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions since early January 2024 and in the western part of the Zaporozhye region during the last 48 hours. At the same time, the Institute's report emphasizes that this Russian offensive may prevent Ukrainian troops from preparing personnel and equipment to restore counter -offensive operations.

"Ukraine will suffer if it simply dug and tries to defend itself by the end of 2024, according to some Western states and analysts," analysts say. According to analysts, Ukrainian forces will be able to create new defensive borders near Avdiivka, which is likely to lead to the culmination of the Russian offensive on this area of ​​the front.

Russian troops are likely to try to take advantage of two opportunities that have opened them after the start of simultaneous offensive operations - the period before the onset of the spring thaw and the ambiguous dynamics of Western assistance. The capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensive offensive operations is an example of how Russian troops conduct these operations, which, at the same time, forces Ukraine to allocate human and material resources for defense operations.

However, according to ISW analysts, Russian troops did not demonstrate the ability to achieve significant operational success or to make a quick mechanized maneuver in large territories, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be considered as a demonstration of this ability.

The Washington Post reported that the Kremlin has been making large-scale efforts to spread misinformation in the Ukrainian media since January 2023, confirming recent reports of Ukrainian officials about Russian information operations that use fake telegram channels to enter the Ukrainian information space. The Russian occupation authorities continue to use educational programs as a means of Russification of occupied Ukraine.