Researchers of the American Institute for the Study of the War in their construction on March 29 told about the chances of Russians. "Russia is probably not ready enough for the deployment of operative reserves to carry out significant offensive operations against cities of Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporozhye without relocation of forces that are already directed to other areas," analysts say.
The ISW also noted that even with the condition of such redeployment of combat forces, the development of events remains unlikely when the Russian army performs three large -scale offenses aimed at capturing large Ukrainian cities. Researchers argue for this opinion: another problem that is currently in Russia is the inability to "create enough recruits", according to analysts.
The situation can change only if the Kremlin resorts to partial conscription reserves, but such a decision at the Institute of War is considered "unpopular" and also unlikely. Researchers also do not see any signs that Russia has significantly relocated for its forces in the direction of Zaporozhye, Sumy or Kharkiv, which could testify to preparatory work on renewal of offensive actions in these areas.
On March 27, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky voiced that Russia is preparing for the offensive in Sumy region and Kharkiv region in the spring of 2025. According to the President, the Kremlin was preparing this operation earlier, but the actions of the Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation were interfered with.
The Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Roman Kostenko confirmed Zelensky's words about the preparation of the offensive of Russia, but specified that this could happen no later than the mid-end of the summer of 2025. The Major of the Armed Forces Valery Prozapas stated that Russia is preparing for an offensive in Zaporozhye.
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