The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be on the border of Poland, Slovakia and Romania, if Ukraine loses - isw

If the Armed Forces are defeated, Russian troops will move to the western border of Ukraine and place new military bases on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. About it writes "Institute of Study of War". With such a scenario of events, the occupation troops of the Russian Federation will fight the Ukrainian guerrillas, while at the same time troops from the forefront will be able to create a threat to NATO.

The Russian leadership will retain an expanded army after the war and can easily host three full armies (the 18th All-Military Army and the 25th Army Army, specially created for war in Ukraine, and the 8th Guards Army) near the borders of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Slovak Romania.

In the divisions in these armies there will be three regiments in each, they will rely on the connections located in the rear, in the future the advanced parts will bring to the full number of about 6 mechanized divisions (18 regiments). The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could transfer divisions stationed on the eastern border of Ukraine.

The Kremlin has achieved great success in its long -term control over the control of the Belarusian Armed Forces, and Ukraine will allow Ukraine to fulfill this purpose. On a permanent basis, or in the rotation mode of the Air Force Division (three regiments) and a motorized rifle division (probably three regiments) will be located in the southwest and north of Belarus. One or several NATO countries will be at risk of mechanized offensive.

The Russian land troops will be covered by a dense anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems of S-300, C-400 and C-500 anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems with coverage of the entire front. NATO will not be able to protect against such an attack by the forces now in Europe. The US will have to transfer a large number of US soldiers to the Eastern NATO from the Baltic to the Black Sea to restrain the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Among other things, Washington will have to pass a significant part of his invasion aircraft on a constant basis for Europe. The NATO Defense Strategy stipulates that the preference in the air ensures the protection of the major part of the enemy attacks, as well as land forces of smaller numbers and artillery. The United States will have to keep a large number of invisibility aircraft in Europe to destroy Russian air defense systems and not to be restored.

The need to use a significant number of stealth-frames will not allow the US to fully support Taiwan in the event of Chinese aggression: all Taiwan scenarios are largely relying on invisible aircraft.

The cost of these protective measures will be astronomical, after the hypothetical defeat of Ukraine will come uncertainty, associated with a very high risk when the US forces will not be properly prepared by neither Russia nor China, not to mention the scenario when the Russian Federation and the PRC decide on ' unite. Recall that the ISW analysts in the report of December 14 told what "Final" can expect for Avdiivka.