Will Belarus enter the war against Ukraine: Sky News evaluated the consequences for the front

"I always said that if Putin falls, Lukashenko falls about the next day. So Belarus is an integral part of this, but will they send their army abroad? Probably, and almost certain that not," he is convinced. Clark considers the Belarusian army ineffective. Although officially there are about 50,000 soldiers, no more than 15 thousand can be considered capable - and they have low training and poor equipment.

According to the expert, Belarus is unlikely to be able to significantly affect the situation at the front - even Russians do not consider it as a strong military partner. Its main role is likely to be limited to providing the territory for maneuvers or distracting actions. At the end of April, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia can prepare a new offensive from the territory of Belarus this summer, covered with military exercises.

According to him, it was on the pretext of Moscow that she has repeatedly started her attacks. He also noted that the direction of the potential blow remains unknown - both Ukraine and NATO countries, including Lithuania or Poland, may be threatened.

In a comment for focus, military analyst Dmitry Snegirev emphasized that Russia prepares large-scale training "West-2025" in Belarus, which can testify to the preparation for the expansion of fighting in the northern direction, in particular to the Chernihiv region, as well as the pressure on Ukraine and Europe.

The likelihood of invasion of Belarus depends on the position of China, which is not interested in escalation, and the main efforts of the Russian Federation are now concentrated in the Donetsk region. Provocations in the north can be a distracting maneuver, while sanctions and a difficult situation in Russia are forcing the Kremlin to look for quick results, because the long war is very costly for him.

Recently, the Russian Federation began to use the airspace of Belarus again for intelligence to prepare strikes with winged rockets in Ukraine. On Tuesday, May 27, the media reported that in Belarus the Soviet military aircraft of a comprehensive intelligence IL-20 of the CCU was noticed, which probably conducts intelligence of radar air defense stations in the western regions of Ukraine.

The analyst emphasizes that Belarus has no military potential capable of significantly affecting the war on the side of Russia. We will remind, the United Aviation Corporation (OAC) and Belarusian defense enterprises began official negotiations on the joint production of the Russian light fighter fighter of the fifth generation of SU-75 "Shah and Mat". Earlier, intelligence of Ukraine said that there is no nuclear weapons in Belarus and, moreover, "Oresshnik".