Putin will play his last card. The main scenarios of war development in Ukraine

First, it is difficult to predict something in this conflict. We saw the tides and tides of this war with the first obvious Blitzkrig Moscow and the assumption of most people that it will end in a few days the victory of the Russians. But then the Ukrainians were unexpectedly defeated in the battle near Kiev, and later Russia was reoriented to the Donbas - for victory in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.

And in recent weeks, it seems that the turning point has occurred again, and the momentum has changed again thanks to the new Western military supply (HIMARS) to Ukraine - the Russian progress in the Donbass has stalled, and now the focus is on the future battle for Kherson, in which Ukraine is expected to go. on the offensive.

Secondly, we know that, after all, it depends a lot on Putin, and the war will end when he decides to stop offensive actions-although he may first need to win the battlefield. And six months later, Putin, of course, should ask if he can really win this war? And in this case, he may insist on concluding a peace agreement in the near future.

I think it is clear that Russia has no unlimited opportunities to continue this conflict, unless Putin is ready to put the Russian economy in full -scale conditions of the total war - remember the general mobilization in the style of World War II and return to state planning of the economy. I think you could refer to Iraq during Saddam and say: Look, he was running a war with Iran for almost ten years. But then Saddam was financed and equipped with the Gulf countries.

And in the case of Russia - the United States has now restricted external sources of money or weapons, although it could assist the price of rose oil. But Putin's problem with weapons and troops. By and large, Russia has lost a huge amount of military equipment and people in this conflict - probably half of its capacity. And it is difficult to replenish it.

In Russia, high -precision missile reserves are over, and it is difficult to produce in view of prohibitions on export of Western technologies to Russia. And China does not want to help Russia in this, although everything can change after the idiotic visit of Pelosi. And in the case of replenishment of Himars ammunition now they have a devastating impact, causing damage to Russian supply chains, which were already vulnerable.