Isolate Kherson and block supply: the Armed Forces should avoid street fighting - The Economist

However, it is more difficult to attack than to defend. About it reports The Economist. At the end of July, British intelligence stated that the counter -offensive in Kherson was already beginning, and after explosions in the Crimea at the aerodrome near the city of Saki, General Dmitry Marchenko stated that Kherson would be released by the end of the year. However, this task is not simple, because only infantry can capture the territory.

It is believed that the attacking side requires three times more personnel to successfully overcome the well -fortified defense. If Ukraine once had such an advantage, now it is not true. For several weeks, the Russian Federation has switched off its forces from Razum on the Eastern Front to strengthen its position in Kherson and the region. According to refugees who have recently been able to leave the city, they saw numerous equipment and Russian soldiers, including near Nova Kakhovka.

Conrad Music with Rochan Consulting, a company that tracks the situation at the front, reported that at the end of July, 13 Russian battalion-tactical groups (BTG) were present in the region. (One BTG is usually several hundred people). Now they are already 25-30. "Now we believe that this window is already lost. " The analyst explained. "Ukrainians do not have enough troops when compared to the Russians. " Ukraine has enough servicemen, but most of them are recruits.

Five brigades of the most experienced and most important Ukrainian soldiers participated in the most difficult battles, says Jack Wtling, Analyst from Royal United Services Institute. These units are exhausted and suffered. It will take time to prepare and equipment recruits.

"After 8 years of the war, the Ukrainian forces have learned to defend themselves well, but they have a very small experience of participating in large -scale offensive actions, or without such," - explained Colonel Sergei Grabsky in an interview with the authors of Podcast Geopolitics Decanted. A successful counter -offensive operation is related to many losses. Russian troops had time to prepare.

For months, they dug trenches and took everything they needed to strengthen positions in the Kherson region. According to Chris Dougher, a former strategist in the Pentagon, if the offensive of the Armed Forces on Kherson looks like the attack of Russians on Severodonetsk is a dead end. "Ukraine will lose a lot of personnel and material, and it is likely that it will be the last major operation of Ukrainian forces in 2022," he explained.

According to Dogerti, Ukraine should use an indirect approach: to isolate Kherson and with the help of irregular forces and artillery to cover the lines of supply of Russian troops. Recent guerrilla attacks, as well as shocks in ammunition, indicate the effectiveness of this approach. Some officials of Ukraine say that they agree to wait and plow Russian forces to avoid street fighting and not destroy the city.

At the same time, there is some benefit from the statements that the ground offensive is inevitable. In addition to the fact that the residents of the occupied areas are encouraged, it can be a reception to make the command of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have to charge forces from other directions. In this case, in other regions there will be unprotected places that Ukraine can use. The question is how the political and military strategies of Ukraine are consistent and consistent.

President Zelensky seeks to show Western partners that the weapons they pass to Ukraine make a fracture in the course of the war, and related economic difficulties are not in vain. The Russian army replenishes combat loss, this circumstance and the wet land will complicate the likely offensive in the fall. If it does not happen, it will undermine the morale, but in the event of failure, the disappointment will be even greater.

Analysts point to Severodonetsk, where, as it is believed, Zelensky, contrary to the advice, insisted on the defense of the city by Ukrainian troops for too long than was a footprint, as Ukrainians were barely alive. In history, in particular, in the Second World War, there are examples of when military operations began too early and eventually turned out to be unjustified. Earlier, Focus reported that the leadership of the invaders escaped from Kherson after the destruction of supply routes.