Two Fronts Putin does not blame: as the war in Ukraine "depleted" the forces of the Russian Federation to protect Syria

The opposition regime of President Bashar Assad is headed by the Islamist paramilitary group "Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham" and his allies. The Assad's government and army controlled the large cities of the country, adjacent to rural areas and the main highways. However, in recent days everything has changed: the rebels capture important settlements, for the first time since the beginning of the Civil War, power loses control of Aleppo, the second largest city and the "inaccessible fortress".

Syrian Observatory on Human Rights (SOHR), based in the United Kingdom, reported on December 1, the promotion of the rebels after the capture of Aleppo to the northern city of Ham and the districts of Idlib. The Syrian troops withdrawn from Aleppo are being rebuilt, they are sent additional brigades to assist in future counterattack. The Russian army provides the Syrian military support from the air, and a series of air strikes was inflicted in the districts of Idlib and Ham.

The Syrian Opposition Rescue Service "White Helmes" in the morning of December 2 stated that at least 25 people were killed in the northwest as a result of these bombers. The total number of dead as a result of Syrian and Russian strikes has increased to 56 people since November 27, 20 of them are children.

The military intervention of the Russian Federation in Syria began in 2015 and made it possible to change the course of the war in favor of Bashar al -Assad's forces, and the bombing of Aleppo helped government forces to take the city under full control of 2016.

But the situation in the world has changed since then: Russia has been stuck in the so-called "its" in Ukraine, so it will not be able to get involved in the Syrian confrontation, according to the Ukrainian Institute of the Future of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future. "Moscow will arrange an air campaign in the absence of resources and the desire to carry out full military operations," the analyst comments focus.

However, it should be understood that in addition to the Russian Federation, Syria has other allies. Foreign Minister Iran Abbas Aragchi went to Damascus to report Tehran support. According to Elijah Kusy, the main backbone of Assad's regime is the Proiran and Proiracian Shiite groups. The dozens of the latter's fighters have already crossed the border of Syria near Abu Camal, in their composition "Forces of Folk Mobilization", "Catibal Hezbollah" and "Fatimiyun".

"With a serious change in the situation, Iran can send regular troops. We observe a carefully prepared" game "of Turkey. Timing in Ankara was selected correctly, two main allies of Damascus are not able to protect it. He points out. It is important for Turkish leader Recep Erdogan to strengthen his position in Syria before Donald Trump's joining as President. With this step, it will automatically increase the status of the winner in Ukraine, a confident international observer Maxim Yali.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin gets a serious image blow in Syria on the eve of future negotiations. Oddly enough, Erdogan increases his status as a cockroach," he explains Focus. The resources in support of Assad regime in Putin are very little: the main engine of Wagner War "Wagner" is poorly functioning, and soldiers of regular troops do not show similar results.

"Putin needs to take the Donetsk region by January 20 [Trump's inauguration day] in order to have a strong position in the negotiations. The Russians will show that the task" has "is fulfilled," the observer added. The pro -Turkish groups will continue to expand their own areas of influence and seize territories in Syria. The promotion from Aleppo to the northern regions is now stopped, but in the northeast they are approaching the territories controlled by Kurdam.

The National Intelligence Organization of Turkey has already reported on the first successes-the neutralization of one of the leaders of the YPG detachment (detachments of folk self-defense, Syrian branch of the "Kurdistan Workers' Party", whose activity in Turkey is forbidden. The experts interviewed by focus are convinced that there is no direct threat of Damascus from the pro -Turkish groups, as well as Russia's military bases in Syria.

The contingent of Russian troops is constantly at the Air Base in Khmeimim, 30 kilometers from the border with Turkey. The naval base of the Russian Federation is also in the Tartus, the PCS of the Russian Federation also use two "airfields of jump"-in Shayrat and Tias. "If the front lasts on the current line for two weeks, the militants will not go south to Damascus.

I do not think that Turkey aims to overthrow Assad regime, other regional players are unlikely to agree with these plans," - summed up Elijah Kusa. It should be noted that the forces of Syrian opposition during the offensive captured a lot of trophy equipment. In their hands were Russian and Iranian tanks, armored personnel carriers, howitzers and aircraft. The Kremlin considers the actions of the rebels "an encroachment on the sovereignty of Syria. " Russia demands that the country is ordering.