Europe's gas needle: why fuel supply from Russia to the EU is ongoing and when they stop

In total, the liquefied gas was purchased by almost 27 billion euros, and most of all - in the United States (by 13. 7 billion euros). In addition to the liquefied gas supplied by tankers to the EU ports, some countries continue to use pipeline gas with Russian origin.  For example, last year, the EU imported 32 billion cubic meters of gas from the Russian Federation (another 20 billion cubic meters of Russian liquefied gas received tanker supplies).

What is the dependence of Europe on Russian fuel and when will the EU put a point in obtaining a resource from Russia? The most Russian gas, if analyzed 2024, bought countries such as France, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, Italy, Greece and Slovakia. Basically, gas from the Russian Federation to EU countries is entered by tankers - it is a PPG (liquefied gas), for the supply of which there are no sanctions or restrictions in the EU.

Some EU countries have abandoned the resource from the Russian Federation, such as the Baltic countries. However, since there is no official ban, most countries are in no hurry to stop purchasing. Therefore, billions of euros from the EU go to the budget of the aggressor country. “Russia's income from supplies, first of all, pipeline gas, has decreased by about 70%in the last three years, so there is a positive in terms of sanctions.

But, of course, we want more so that the sanctions really work 100%. Unfortunately, there is no such thing yet because the European Union does not consider it to be in the war with Russia. In addition, they constantly put sticks in the wheels of Orban and Fitzo, ” - said Vladimir Omelchenko, director of the energy programs of the Center Razumkov. He adds that there are no restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas in the EU - neither PPG nor pipeline.

However, with the pipeline itself, the Kremlin itself sets a restriction. While the LPG market in Europe is a very interesting Russia, which still hopes to increase the sales of natural gas in the EU with tanker supplies. “Embargo or restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas in any form, whether pipeline or tankers, are not at the level of the European Union.

That is, restrictions are the consequences of the actions of the Russians themselves, we remember their actions with the restriction of deliveries or the requirement to pay in rubles. And as a result, the significant part of the buyers abandoned their services. Or, the countries themselves decide to refuse to purchase Russian gas, ”Roman Nitsovich, DIXI GROUP research director, said in a comment to focus.

The expert notes the importance of the decision of Poland and Germany not to buy pipeline gas through the system of Europe and the decision of Ukraine not to continue the contract for transit of Russian gas. “As for consumers who receive pipeline gas, it is Hungary, where gas enters through the Turkish flow system. There are also countries that receive gas in the form of terminals in Belgium, France, and Spain.

From there, gas enters both the domestic markets of the marked countries and transit to other countries. It is clear that everyone is in force within the law, there is no violation of sanctions, because there are no sanctions. But it is obvious that many expect that the following packages will raise the issue of Russian gas, ”says Roman Nitsovich.

US Energy Minister Chris Wright has recently stated that EU countries need to stop the purchase of Russian oil and gas if they want Washington to strengthen sanctions against Moscow. He noted: "This trade finances the" military machine "of the illegitimate Russian President Vladimir Putin. " As for the European Union, the European Commission Plan is now a complete rejection of Russian gas by the end of 2027. However, it is still all declarations of intentions.

Russia has actually lost the European gas market, but China is not going to buy large volumes of Russian fuel without a significant discount "As for the declared plans by 2027, they are still voluntary. This is a rePowreu plan.

Now the discussion is a project of the Regulation, that is, a legislative act that obliges the EU Member States, first, to report on the level of dependence, and secondly, it prohibits any new long-term contracts, as well as the expansion of existing historical contracts from the Russian Federation for gas imports. The document is at the stage of discussion in the European Union. If it is accepted, it will already be a legally binding document, ”Roman Nitsovich said.

In the meantime, gas supplies from Russia to the EU will continue, although, of course, the scale of such supplies will be much smaller than, for example, in 2021, when the EU imported 157 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. However, Russia is now interested not only in expanding gas supplies to the EU, but also in increasing gas imports to China. At least this is declared by regular statements in the Kremlin.

And Gazprom signed an agreement on the construction of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China through Mongolia and declared expansion of deliveries by other routes. Chief Executive Director Alexei Miller reported that the company can supply up to 50 billion cubic meters per year because of Siberia 2 for 30 years. However, the experts with whom focus spoke with doubts about the realism of replacing the European market by Russia in Chinese.

“China does not need Russian gas, it has enough of its gas, and China is a sufficiently diversified country in terms of gas. The PRC is now not focused on gas, but on the development of renewable energy sources. They have signed a document there that China does not oblige anything, either in prices or in time. That is, China says - you want, build, only for your money, and the price and conditions, as we say, will be. This is the position of China, ”Vladimir Omelchenko said.

Roman Nitsovich calls the Russian Federation signed with China with the next statement of intentions. “These are the next statements about the intentions, and to some real beginning of the implementation of this project is still far. This is the first. Second, China itself does not need so much resource. In the coming years, renewable energy, nuclear energy develops at a frantic pace. There are many gas suppliers in the Asian region.