Hamas plus Lebanon and Iran. How real global war in the Middle East

In recent days, more and more analysts have been saying that Israel's enemies can try to expand the war with Hamas, opening new fronts, which can force the United States to directly enter the conflict with air and maritime forces to protect their nearest ally in the region.

Last week, the Pentagon sent a second aircraft carrier to the region, as well as additional planes on land bases, even when Washington sent a message to Iran to avoid escalation through intermediaries in Qatar, Oman and China. The fears of opening the Second Front deepened on Sunday, October 15, when intense battles exploded on the northern border of Israel.

Hezbolla, Iranian-supported police, which controls South Lebanon, shot missiles in Israel, and Israel responded with artillery shelling and air strikes. The full -scale attack to the north can overload Israel, as most of his forces are focused on a possible land offensive in gas, south. But will Iran or Lebanon go to it, knowing that in which the US will come to the rescue of Israel? We cannot exclude this opportunity by 100%. After Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, the Tehran army mobilized.

In response, Joe Biden ordered the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, the largest and most modern aircraft carrier of the US Navy, to the Eastern Mediterranean, along with his accompaniment last week. Then, on Saturday, Defense Minister Lloyd J. Austin III ordered the aircraft carrier "Dwight D. Eisenhower" to join him. Currently, the United States has air armades of more than 100 assault aircraft.

Pentagon also sent a small detachment to Israel to assist in intelligence and planning to find and liberate hostages held by Hamas, among which Americans are likely to be. The White House's departmental officials stated that they did not consider any actions on Earth by US forces. However, if Hezbollas start a major attack, the United States can come to the rescue of Israel using sea and air parts for shelling in Lebanon. About Iran.

It can be said that Iran will observe the theater of hostilities and, in the case of escalation, will enter the war as a participant. Thus, the prospect of hostilities in the Middle East arises after years, during which the United States tried to escape from what was called "eternal wars" in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and after years of relatively peaceful life for Israel.

After the aforementioned shootout, the Israeli military stated that they determined the territory with a length of several tens of kilometers near the border with Lebanon, "isolation zone", preparing for the worst. At the same time, after what happened in the south, the Israelis are frightened that it can be repeated on this border. And apparently, one that the other prospect of outbreak of war on this border line remains 50%. There are many factors that speak against the global war.

Will Iran attack Israel? 80% probability that no. Iran's supreme leader Ayatol Ali Khameney was detached from Tehran's participation in Hamas's attacks on Israel. At the same time, Tehran has repeatedly acknowledged that it was involved in providing moral and financial support to the "Gaza Sector". And in fact, Hamas congratulated on the attack on Israel. Everything says that Iran will continue to support fighters and threaten, but Iran will not go to the open declaration of war of Israel.

Causes of two: the first is the risk of a decisive response, including military and sanctions by Israel's chief ally-the USA, the second is the Iranian theocratic regime, its weapons, and its military tangent to many wars and proxy conflict, which reduces the chances of declaring a full-scale war Israel.

In particular, in Yemen, where Iran supports the Huti rebels, giving them weapons, including rockets and Drone Kamikadze, and military instructors; In Syria, Iran is a strategic partner of the Syrian regime Bashar Al-Assad, providing financial and military support (Iran also has military in Syria); In Lebanon, Iran supports Hezbolla, an important organization for Iran, which considers Israel with his enemy; In Bahrain, Iran supports the Shiite majority, which causes a conflict with the country's Sunni authorities; In Iraq, Iran supports the Iraq government dominated by Shiites.

Well, in the end, in Palestine, Iran is supported by the Palestinian Hamas, a controlling lane of Gaza, supplies weapons to the Russian Federation, thus directly participating in the war against Ukraine. Internal conflicts in Iran, such as Kurdish separatism or mass protests against the wearing of Hijab, are also added to Iran. The Global War is a script that no one wants to see. However, the Middle East still remains one of the hottest points on the map. And the temperature only increases.