Boycott or help: what Putin and Aliyev's negotiations mean for Ukraine

But let's briefly go through the points related to this topic. So: why is Putin? And that is also its reason. As for gas. If Azerbaijan is included in the Ukrainian GTS, then temporarily its volumes of deliveries in the Turkish direction can fall - it is not so easy to increase production quickly. And this is a place for Russian gas. That is, when choosing "0" through Ukraine and "***" through Turkey, an option "0" appears through Ukraine and "a little more than *** through Turkey". Profitably.

The conflict of the Russian Federation is not needed for the North-South Project. A corridor is required. But Turkey and Azerbaijan are close to the end of the railway bypassing the Armenian territory (through Iran). The more expensive is more difficult, but acceptable. The Russian Federation, trying to insist on the right of a key participant, risks "fall out of the scheme of" Zanhezur corridor. Therefore, he agrees to restricted participation. Another aspect is directly related to Ukraine.

Putin is needed to demonstrate that the Russian Federation can (or, as they say, to stay) a reliable EU partner in the supply of hydrocarbons. Participation in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is a demonstration of the ability to be an adequate and agreement participant in negotiation.

Against this background, Russian propaganda has actively picked up the topic of "Northern Streams" undermining, bringing European politicians to think about Ukraine's unpredictability as a partner. In parallel, Russian propaganda again started a song about Ukraine's reluctance to go to peace talks. But back to the topic of contracts. Azerbaijan (and Turkey) sell the realization of their interests and slightly moved the Kremlin ambitions in the region.

At the same time, the EU can go to Azerbaijani (at the place of production) gas, Ukraine will receive money for transit and also buy a little. Unfortunately, SOCAR and Gazprom have to conclude a number of transactions. In something similar to those signed by Naftogaz on the transit of Russian gas. Only in the role of Naftogaz - the transiter - for Azerbaijanis is Gazprom. But we have a wave of "betrayal" after the agreements. Yes, Azerbaijan will work with the Russian Federation.

Like Turkey works with Gazprom. But there is a problem - the gas from the tank to enter the Ukrainian GTS does not fly air. And in the pipe are interested, in particular, countries that give us weapons and money for life. And in Turkey, contracts with Gazprom do not prevent us from working with Turkey, including the construction of ships for the Navy. That is, we can work quite rationally. There is experience. And here, in the light of recent events, there is an interesting option for Ukraine.

You can shout: "betrayal!". And you can think of how to return the situation in your favor. And here it is worth mentioning that we have gasoline in the country. That's right, deficit. We carry fuel countries, including Russian oil. But the fuel is needed by the Armed Forces. And imports are always more expensive than their own product. To what am I? To offer the same SOCAR to build a small such refinery on the territory of Ukraine.

And, for example, to guarantee (in compliance with price limits) redemption of a number of types of fuel for the Armed Forces. For example, aviation fuel, which is not produced by all. I will tell me that Russia will hit this plant? Hmm. It is doubtful, since the Russian Federation depends on the position of Aliyev and Erdogan. And that means there is an additional guarantee for such a small business. And fuel guarantee for defense forces. And jobs. And taxes.