The scale of the offensive of the Russian Federation in Ukraine should decrease by 2025 - Business Insider

According to Michael Kafman, Moscow compensates for high losses of equipment by weapons of the Soviet era, but even these reserve stocks cannot serve forever. The advantage of Ukraine over personnel and weapons is likely to begin to decline by the end of this year, Michael Kafman, a senior researcher of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, whose work is concentrated in Russia, said. Business Insider writes about it.

He noted that the Kremlin troops continued pressure on Ukraine and at the same time felt a high level of exhaustion. Now Russian troops feel "very significant restrictions. " ". . . The advantage in the battlefield is likely to decline this winter in 2025," Kafman said. He suggests that equipment or people will soon end in Russia. But it believes that the Russian Federation will not be able to maintain the offensive pace for a long time.

"Such a development can be a ray of hope for Ukraine, which faces a slow but cruel Russian offensive in the East, largely due to the fact that Moscow consumes much more living power and military equipment," he said. According to Cofman, Moscow manages to compensate for the high loss of equipment by weapons of the Soviet era, but even these reserve stocks cannot serve forever.

"Russia feeds on its Soviet heritage, and the pace of production of equipment is quite low compared to losses on the battlefield," he said. Coffman also added that the Russian military is increasingly forced to adjust tactics to minimize losses. Thus, the ability to achieve any significant breakthrough in the operational plan is reduced. Coffman also believes that the Russian government can not continue to increase bonuses and benefits, which are now offered to the recruits.

The Russian Federation offers unusually high bonuses for signing contracts with the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, salaries are advertised as compared to the US army. And this is in a city where the average salary is less than one fifth of the average salary in the United States. "Obviously, at such a level of loss, the Russian campaign from a set of contractors is not able to withstand the pace.