Russia will not go anywhere. Why the Kremlin Grain Agreement is even more important than for Ukraine

In addition to reducing oil and gas exports from a country that is not a news for anyone, the "gas station" economy is now going on far from the best of times. These factors indicate that the Russians are interested in exporting their own grain and fertilizers to reduce the dependence on exports of falling energy. In 2022, the Russian Federation exported approximately 60 million tons of grain, in 2023 they exported a maximum of 55 million tons.

But because of sanctions, such exports with the Russian Federation will be difficult. Insurance, bank calculations and logistics for Russian exporters have become a significant barrier that slows down exports. The Russians will not be able to sell everything in Iran, because Iranian needs only 10-12 million tons of grain to cover the existing deficit. The Russians and terms are cried: since August, many Islamic countries will no longer buy the grain of the old crop due to strict sanitary norms.

That is why we saw a kind of theater when the most chief goblin-terrorist personally declared withdrawing from the agreement, and then began to trade that he still needs to be canceled from sanctions so that the Russians do not engage in piracy at sea. The Russians need grain exports no less than us, if not more. From the exported 60 million tons last year, only 12 million tons were taken out of the Russian Federation, everything else went through ports.

The closure of the Bosphorus and sanctions against Russian grain cargo on the Baltic automatically puts the Russians on their knees, as they will find themselves from 30-40 million tons of grain, which will not be able to export. In June, the Russians increased grain exports by a third, clearly to have time to trade in the Grain Agreement in July.

And now, after the next destruction of the Crimean bridge, Hu-Lo has begun to make a princess, which should be persuaded to go to the agreement on its terms. It is difficult to predict the behavior of the hunter, but the preliminary analysis shows that the Russians were preparing for the July in June, and the purpose of this scenario is to check the removal of some sanctions because it is already burning.

But the key to the grain agreement remain in Turkey, because if Erdogan's exhortation does not occur, then for Russian grain cargoes, the Mediterranean may become unavailable at some time. So we keep the defense, no concessions with creatures. For Ukraine, a pause of 1-1. 5 months with grain export is not a disaster as such.