Another "special operation". Why Putin draws Lukashenko into war

Since the beginning of the announcement of the Russian Federation "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine, Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko has supported Russia at all levels. In particular, he gave the territory of the country as a bridgehead for invasion of Ukraine-Belarus was used for strikes by operational-tactical missile systems "Iskander", there was a Russian aviation there, and then promised to enter the war on an equal basis with Russia. The next wave of Minsk activity was this week.

At first, Lukashenko announced the return to the Russian military. However, he noted that it will not be a large number, but also "not one thousand people". "It will be a regional grouping of troops with Russia," he said. After that, the local Belarusian media, citing their sources, began to say that Lukashenko finally decided to realize the idea of ​​hidden mobilization. It is planned to be conducted under the guise of military validation.

Finally, in Minsk, they talked about the "counter -terrorist operation" regime. The Foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makey explained in one interview that there were threats from neighboring countries. "There was information that provocations were planned on the part of individual related states, which were related to the capture of individual areas of Belarus," he said. In addition, the day before was the chairman of the State Security Committee (KGB) of Belarus Ivan Tertel.

He told security officers and officials from the economic bloc that Ukraine allegedly preparing an attack on Belarus. Like, foreign intelligence services have prepared in Ukraine from 100 to 300 fighters for an armed invasion of Belarusian territory. "There are other scenarios. They provide, including preparation for a series of terrorist attacks in our territory - taking into account that we create a joint grouping Allies, "the Tetel said.

However, soon the KGB explained that they were not so understood. In Ukraine, all such statements and actions were called provocation. "Exclude that the Belarusian army will not attack Ukraine. But at this stage, the possibility of involving it in a hypothetical invasion can be evaluated as a minimal.

In addition, the diplomatic activity of representatives of the Belarusian side has recently been noted in finding contact with representatives of the West, trying to avoid complete depending on the Russian Federation, "says military expert Dmitry Snegirev. Oleksandr Musienko, the head of the Military Legal Research Center, adds: the border from Belarus from Ukraine is protected-everything is replaced, the positions are fortified.

"The situation is significantly different from the one that was in February 2022," the expert assures. Musienko explains: from a military point of view, the situation in Belarus has not changed: "There are different units of the Belarusian army in a permanent state of combat readiness. T-72 tanks, and they are transferred to Russia for use. , and even more so, Putin. And this is a significant restraining factor. " Musienko notes: "Lukashenko is on a serious stretch.

" On the one hand, Putin presses on Lukashenko, and he, as he can, simulates constant preparations for entering the war, but he does not make such a decision yet. So he introduces a "counter -terrorist operation" regime, no, then he commands to create a southern command, not to create. And all because Lukashenko is in full political and economically dependent on the Kremlin.

On the other hand, the President of Belarus is ready to do anything: give all the tanks and provide the territory for Russians, airfields, so as not to give order to the Belarusian army for the offensive. "But Russia is profitable to attract Belarus. For example, it is possible to provoke a war with Europe not in the territory of Russia, but in Belarus.

From this point of view, they substitute Belarus to share the country with them to expected the EU from its territory, and Europeans lived with them in fear, " - says Musienko. NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov says: Lukashenko is a hostage to a situation that wants to sow panic among Ukrainians and Europeans with their statements. Experts say that if there is an increase in the group of Russian troops, Ukraine will learn about it.

The General Staff understand the purpose of both conversations and real offensive - to distract attention and forces from the front in the south and east of Ukraine. Currently, only signs of preparation for the placement and arrangement of Russian troops are noticeable, but there are no troops in Belarus. "There are constantly up to a thousand servicemen from Russia, 6 aircraft, 4" Iskanders "and 12 SPR C-400",-said Lieutenant General Sergey Nayev commander.

But at the same time, he says that there are measures in Belarus to prepare the airfield, as well as infrastructure for deployment on their basis of Russian forces. Dmitry Snegirev believes that the Belarusian map will continue to use Putin for multi -vector pressure.

"Against the backdrop of applications, which was heard on October 6, for the first time from August 28, a rocket strike was applied in Ukraine from the territory To say that these statements by the MOB were supported by specific actions by the Russian military. It is impossible to exclude the possibility of further use of the RB to deploy the military contingent of the Russian Federation, the use of the infrastructure of the Belarus Armed Just 35 km from the Ukrainian territory.