Egypt and Ethiopia are preparing for a great war: that allies of

New military alliances are not created for no reason: in Africa there is a new Great War. For resources, access to the sea and for drinking water. The focus tried to evaluate the scale of the fire, which is about to break on the banks of the Arabian and Red Seas. Shifts in the security and management system are taking place around the world, and Africa rich in natural resources is one of the objects of confrontation between old world leaders and applicants for domination.

New local elites want to go into the status of subjects, if not worldwide, at least African policy. This contributes to the formation of new regional alliances of local states. In the capital of Eritrea, Asmarie, a meeting of the leaders of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea itself took place - countries united against Ethiopia. And here the conflict was not just the countries of Africa. A war between the two new Brix members may be erupted.

The recent Summit of Brix, which gathered in Russian Kazan, was first attended by new countries that have come to the organization with the beginning of this year. And immediately the formation demonstrated the problems of the unity of its members - the leader of Saudi Arabia did not come to the meeting. However, this is only a visible problem of a rebellious organization, because a real war can even be between the two newcomers Brix.

Experts have called the new Union of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea by the anti -Ethiopian alliance. The most important force in it can be the official Cairo. Focus explored the nature of the conflict that could break between Egypt and Ethiopia, and learned what the water is here. Not the only thing that brings together modern Arab secular and militarized Egypt with the world -famous historical brand that formed civilization several thousand years ago is the dependence on the Nile River.

The peculiarity of this one of the largest rivers in the world is that it flows from south to north and flows into the waters of the Mediterranean, before forming a delta (branching into several currents). This is what allowed the ancient inhabitants of the barren desert to establish a agricultural civilization, using the cyclic floods of the river.

Millennials have passed, the technical capabilities of humanity have changed unrecognizable, but it remains constant that the population of Egypt (now it is more than 100 million people) is located around the Nile current and depends entirely on its waters. Therefore, this factor was not always against the use of neighbors above the stream.

Yes, the British controlled Sudan, located above the Nile, and this was a significant factor in influencing the country of the pyramids by the UK in the nineteenth century. Since then, according to the Norwegian Professor Twedt, Egypt has the fear of being left without water, which someone will block from above. Now the same map seeks to play much weaker than the geopolitical weight of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is the only country in Africa that has not become a colony of European states in the nineteenth century, but now its position is quite weak. The country hosted a civil war, which ended with a shaky truce in 2022. Now the government does not actually control the rebellious region of Tigray. Prime Minister Abius Ahmed seeks to transfer the attention of the dissatisfied population to any success.

This, according to geopolitical analytics Jonathan Fenton-Karvey, the latest decisions of the official Addis Abababa are predetermined. Since 2011, Ethiopia has built a giant Renaissance dam on the Nile, which is estimated at $ 4 billion. Thirteen years ago, Egypt has broken domestic political crises. However, the arrival of the military (de facto, the military has been filling in this country in recent decades) changed the situation.

Marshal As-Sisi, understanding the critical weight of Nile's waters for the inhabitants of Egypt, constantly raises the theme of the dam on different sites. This was the last time in a letter to the UN Security Council, where Ethiopia was accused of violating all possible international agreements and law. Ethiopia uses its geographical location - it has no common borders with Egypt. And the "effectiveness" of the UN is now known to everyone.

Therefore, in Addis-Ababe, they perfectly understand that Egypt does not reach them-they have completed the construction of the dam and now prepare the filling of the reservoir formed by it with water. It is clear that in the power of Ethiopia, in addition to the economic benefits, which will bring it into operation, all geopolitical bonuses, which in the strategic perspective can have influence on Egypt - one of the most powerful in all aspects of all Africa and the Arab world.

They understand all the danger from the Renaissance dam in Cairo. After all, the fate of the country will be in the hands of the Ethiopian government, since there is no life without water. However, until recently, there was no effective mechanisms for influencing the official Abobab. However, this possibility of Egyptians was provided by Ethiopia itself. In 1993, Eritrea separated from the country, depriving Ethiopia of access to the sea.

Two years earlier, Somaliland independence proclaimed the Somaliland independence in the Somaliland. This formation has not yet recognized no country in the world. In January this year, Ethiopia concluded a 20 kilometers of the coastal zone for a term of 50 years with the separatist government of Somalilaland. Thus, on the horizon, the recognition of Somalilaland by Addis Ababa, and Ethiopia may become the first member of the UN to recognize this quasi-state enclave.

It is clear that in the capital of Somalia Mogadisho in all possible ways try to prevent this fact of destruction of the integrity of the state already de jure. European expert in Africa Dr. Mohammed Eldo notes that the release of Ethiopia to the sea is also strategically disadvantageous, because it adds another competitor for control of maritime routes in the region. Interestingly, in Somal there is an Ethiopian peacekeeping contingent.

Following the conclusion of the January agreements, the official Mogadisho (the capital, the largest city and the main port of Somalia) began to demand the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country. And they decided to replace them . . . It was with the Egyptian armed contingent. In August, Somalia visited the Egyptian warship, which brought weapons to the country, before that the Egyptian military transport aircraft flew to the country several times.

There are probably about five thousand Egyptian soldiers in Somalia. Having placed his military base in Somalia, Cairo will kill two rabbits-will approach Ethiopia and her dams, and will receive a military presence near the Babel-Mandebsk Strait, which is also vital for Egypt's economy. Using the moment, Egypt began to gather an anti -Ephiopian coalition from the countries of the African horn.

A year ago, Ethiopia felt full safety, now feels that around her, a rabbit from if not hostile, at least unfriendly states. The situation is complicated by the strategic importance of the African horn for the entire planet, and it is one of the main ways of connection between Europe and Asia, the so -called "global event" and "global south". This determines the presence of more powerful world players here. One of these is Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

UAE oil dollars are one of the main financial recipients of many governments of the African horn. Instead, Ankara offers a bit more effective - military products of his defense complex and even military force. Turkey has interacts with Somalia since 2011. On the territory of Somalia is the largest Turkish military base. In February this year, a defense agreement was signed between the states. Instead, the Government of Ethiopia Ankara supplied drones to combat the rebels in the tiger.

Maintaining good relationships with both sides, Turkey hoped to play the role of a mediator in a conflict around Somaliland. Instead, two unsuccessful negotiation rounds were held and after the second President Somalia Hasan Sheikh Mohamud signed a defense agreement with Egypt. The union of three states significantly shifts the balance of power in the region, which, of course, does not like many players. In different regions, Somalia is already protest against the agreement with Egypt.

The state has a lot of vulnerable places. In particular, Ethiopia can support the Jihadists from the Ash-Shabab movement to influence the official Mogadisha. However, the flirting with separatists in this case is a stick with two ends, as Somali and its new allies can support the separatists from the tiger, which will create significant problems for the Ethiopia Government.

It is also worth noting that Ethiopia is the only Orthodox state in the region and is surrounded mainly by Muslim countries - a significant factor in the aspect of mild force. No matter how this confrontation end, its important conclusion on a planetary scale is that the world moves to the era of regional unions. The conflict will either ignit or resolve without the UN participation, which has demonstrated its incapacity for this issue.

An important feature of the situation is that against the background of weakening US positions as a world hegemon, the African corner does not show its influence and China, despite its strategic importance. The Union of Three, concluded in Asmar, can be a new geopolitical precedent, when the problems of the region are solved by its inhabitants without the participation of the world's hegemon, former metropolises and even the states of the second echelon - such as Turkey and the UAE.