Rafale and SAMP/T deliveries to France: when the reinforcement of the Air Force and air defense will appear - analysts

Although the Ukrainian side previously announced the strengthening of combat aircraft and air defense systems thanks to additional Mirage fighters and Aster 30 missiles, insiders told Reuters about much more serious plans. The sources pointed to possible supplies of Rafale aircraft to Ukraine, as well as SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile systems. On the morning of November 17, it became known that this very weapon appears in the new agreements in Paris.

It may be about obtaining old samples in the short term, and about long-term supplies of new weapons, the agency noted. At the same time, the financial side of the future agreement remains closed. Commenting on the news, Defense Express analysts note that the possibility of strengthening the Ukrainian Air Force with Rafale aircraft has been discussed since at least October 2024.

At the same time, the platform is able to remove a number of external restrictions for Ukraine — but also impose new ones related to dependence on French conditions of service and supplies. Meanwhile, a natural question arises as to how quickly France can deliver the Rafale. Paris already has relevant experience in selling used Rafales to allies. For example, the Greek contract became one of the fastest. In January 2021, Athens agreed to buy 12 old and 6 new Rafale version F3R for 2.

4 billion euros. Half a year later, in July of the same year, the first aircraft was handed over to the Air Force of Greece. At the same time, the delivery period of the new Rafale is much longer. The queue for the fighter as of March 2025 is approximately 9 years. And the cost of new planes of the F4 version, based on the example of the contract with Serbia, reaches 225 million euros per unit. As for SAMP/T, these anti-aircraft systems were previously transferred to Ukraine.

But production of new NG systems capable of intercepting hypersonic targets will begin only in 2026, Defense Express noted. For the French armed forces, it is planned to purchase 8 of these air defense systems with delivery by 2030, and four more by 2034. Therefore, it is currently unclear whether they will be completely new or modernized, and in what configuration these air defense systems will reach Ukraine.