Does not intend to finish the war. Why Putin ordered to increase the number of Russian troops - the opinion of analysts

Russian officials did not comment on this decision, and on Russian state television it was mentioned little. Video NYT emphasizes that the Russian dictator is "as far as far away from its goal" to return Ukraine or most of it under the control of the Russian Federation, and its troops lack personnel. US officials claim that the decision to increase the number of troops indicates the severity of these problems.

Russia's losses of up to 80,000 people killed and wounded (according to the US and British military) and the lack of promotion of Russian troops on the front led some analysts to the conclusion that Putin's order was a signal that he was not going to retreat. “It's not the step you do when you expect a quick end of your war. This is what you do when you make a protracted conflict plan, ”said Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher in Rand Corporation.

According to her, "it is an alarming ad", but it doubts the ability of the Russian Federation to finish the case. For Putin, officials tried to transform the Russian army from the Armed Forces of the Soviet era who relied on conscripts into a professional combat force, more similar to the Western armed forces. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has been working on a set of contractors for years, reducing the term of compulsory military service for men aged 18 to 27 to one year.

The Kremlin insists that the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine include only contractors and volunteers, and continues to call the war only a "special military operation". At the same time, Russia conducts "call" of men in the occupied territories of Ukraine, as well as, according to reports, sends to the front and Russian conscripts. “In my opinion, the order does not necessarily mean a larger call or greater mobilization.

It can mean it, but it can be connected with the current efforts to recruit, ”Michael Kafman wrote on Twitter, director of Russia's study at the C. N. A. A. in Arlington, Virginia. The Kremlin may plan to include pro -Russian puppet forces of self -proclaimed republics in the east of Ukraine in its armed forces in the east of Ukraine, "especially if they reach annexation" of these regions.

Putin did not announce some large -scale call, despite the frequent forecasts of analysts and Western officials that he would have to go to such a step to replace killed and wounded soldiers. Instead, the Russian authorities lure people to military service, offering them solid financial incentives and other privileges. They recruited Syrian fighters and mercenaries to participate in hostilities in Ukraine. And in May, Putin signed a law that abolishes the age of 40 years for recruits.

According to analysts, instead of large-scale mobilization, the military could increase the number of young people who are called at any time for the mandatory year of service, or increase the duration of this service. Some analysts suggest that the decree can lay a bureaucratic and budget basis for including in the Armed Forces of other forces, such as the battalions of volunteers who are now fighting in Ukraine, from Chechnya and other regions of Russia.

Russian military analyst Pavel Luzin stated that Putin's decision to increase the number of the Russian army would lead to the fact that the target number of the Armed Forces would return to the level that was last observed in the early 2000s, when Russian soldiers waged a second war in Chechnya.