The scary shoe's dream. When a black swan arrives in Russia in the form of another army rebellion

Prigogine's rebellion showed how a harmful lack of feedback. And - at the same time, he preserved this condition: Putin and his entourage were convinced that only 100% loyal should be based only. Further history with the removal of General Popov, who commanded the 58 army and criticized Gerasimov for negligence, proved that the level of frustration of the military leadership of the Russian Federation reached such a level that conflicts began to flow out.

There is no reason to believe that Russian higher officers have some distinct anti -war sentiment or many of them sympathize with Ukraine, but their dissatisfaction with the actions of the highest military and political leadership is increasing. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov will be rigidly opposed to this. Because they are afraid of blurring power and control. This is of course - will have the opposite effect, forming more and more dissatisfaction.

Currently, the dissatisfied are headed by "radicals", which require war in the conditions of "total mobilization of resources of the country" in the style of the USSR. That is why Prigogine's rhetoric found such support. But if you "twist the nuts" - the effect will be the opposite. Therefore, Putin does not initiate any "Stalinism". The last 2 months also revealed the passivity of two key special services of the Russian Federation - FSO and FSB.

During the history of Prigogine in the Rostov region, the FSB simply closed in their fortress offices and did not show activity until the revolt was regulated. The KGB also behaved in 1991. Passivity demonstrates both indifference and confusion. But the life of "their" Russians does not bother. Yes, the army of the Russian Federation suppresses the initiative and is focused on the execution of any orders, even crazy, it is imposed on the traditions of Dedov region and violence in the army.

Which forms neglect for the lives of soldiers. This makes the Russian army less professional and more passive than the Armed Forces, but increases tolerance to losses. This style leads to the gradual demotivation of soldiers because of a banal desire to survive. But it will hardly be a reason for something more than local riots or protests. Russian society is also indifferent to losses, because it is extremely depositable. Putin tells them "War Need" - "OK". Will say "peace and give Crimea" - "OK".

Instead of Putin there will be another "OK". Putin and Ko worked for a long time. Because a fragmented, passive society that is immersed in escapism is an ideal for dictatorship. Yes, in Russia there are ideological supporters (many) and opponents (few) war. But they all together - in the minority. Most at all, how many people will die on both sides. Because they delegated policy up. (Yes, the story with the drowned pilot is very indicative). In general.

The army of the Russian Federation, regime and elites exist in a state of emotional swings from "shameful defeat" to "well, we somehow stroke", but there is a little lacking in decay and breakdown. To expect that the Generals of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation or the FSB will make some effective rebellion - prematurely. They have no experience in the formation of horizontal alliances, because it contradicts the very nature of such dictatorships.

But when a new rebel appears, many people may well support his movement. Well, or initiate their own. Factors that are squeezed may be the results on the battlefield. It is from the understanding of this, I think, and the effort to move the war into a positional, they are afraid that some significant defeats will bring the system out of balance, and wait for "miracle" outside. The defeats will accelerate and zoom, conflicts in the army, in the elites and in the core of the regime.