We are waiting for expensive fuel in Ukraine: how war in Israel will hit oil prices

The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in the price of oil. Blogger Maxim Voitenko in this connection is asking the question: what figures we will see in the near future, in particular, in Ukraine, to which this wave will inevitably be reached. The most interesting question for me now is how much the Brent barrel will cost before tomorrow's bidding.

Because, sorry for cynicism, the death of 5-10 thousand people will not affect the world economy (if it is not a terrorist attack on September 11), but the rise in price of oil will affect. In particular, on us. In the spring, the Russians with Saudi reduced production and gradually expelled Brent barrel by 95 bucks by September. Other factors were played - American games with the federal reserve system, optimistic forecasts for the restoration of the Chinese economy.

Then the failure went to about 84. The reasons - I can not say exactly, but in my opinion, it is compensation for production at the expense of developing countries, like Nigeria, and opening access to US strategic reserves. On Friday night, on the seventh day of exacerbation of the Arab-Israeli conflict, nearly $ 91 was given at the barrel, and closed at that session. The growth per day was about 5. 5 percent. According to the exchange standards, it is a lot.

Of course, the gas pipe went up, at the same time, probably with a delay jumping diesel. Next - it all depends on the scale of the war and its duration. If Iran is also involved in the case, it will all become even more expensive. Although Iran is exported to exports relatively little - one and a half million barrels a day.

For comparison, before the introduction of restrictions in this spring, Russia issued more than eight million barrels a day, and the Saudi after the introduction of quotas - in the region of nine million a day. All OPEC (this without Russia) in the summer issued less than 30 million barrels a day. But the war can be quite confused. For Saudites, Arab Solidarity is a great reason to introduce new quotas for prey. Qatar has already threatened to stop gas supply if Palestinians continue to rol.

In theory, at the height, it can lead to energy crisis, which covered the planet after the war of the Judgment Day of 1973, when the Arabs stopped supplying the event with energy. Oil jumped four times a year. At that time, the USSR rose perfectly. Actually, the Soviet social, housing and many more Brezhnev's times are the fruit of oil prices that have flew in the seventies.