Trump is off to a low start: why the US president is forcing an agreement with the Russian Federation and what to expect from him after October 31

Why is everything so compressed in time? Trump's goal is to reach some outline of an "agreement" with the Russian Federation on the eve of the APEC 2025 summit. This is a forum of Asia-Pacific cooperation, which will be held from October 31 to November 1, 2025 in the South Korean city of Gyeongju under the motto: "Creating a sustainable future. " Trump may not attend the summit itself, but he planned to visit Gyeongju on that date and meet with Xi Jinping.

The new Korean administration has put a lot of effort into the success of the summit, trying to occupy the function of a bridge between the West and the East in the coming decades, to fulfill the role of a plastic intercivilizational "link".

All Trump needed was to come to a meeting with Xi with a draft of an "agreement with Putin" and tell the Chinese leader: "I broke your plans, your Global Eurasian Island is a myth, Russia will restore relations with the West for the slightest concessions - here is the paper. In general, let's sign the agreement, you have no more cards.

" On the other hand, if Budapest does not take place or the "draft" is not signed, then Xi will be able to say to Trump: "Your efforts to create geopolitical leeway for the Russian Federation in the opposite direction from China have failed. The global Eurasian island is a reality. There is a weak Europe in Eurasia and there is a Mongolian Empire 2. 0 that is growing in potential. And the overall balance of power is gradually not in favor of the United States.

Therefore, here are our conditions: you still have cards, then fix at least a minimal profit in the game while it is still possible. " Although everything can be more prosaic: Trump will not go to South Korea without a "draft". But it will be a total disaster for US influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Because then Xi will say in Kenju: there is China in Asia, and the USA is far across the ocean. The Chinese leader will then become the full host of the summit.

In this context, it is interesting to compare the strategy of Israeli and Ukrainian diplomacy. Israel often nods and formally signs off on what Trump demands. And then he still does everything his way, often even involving the United States in his plans, as was the case with Iran and the Houthis. We have a different strategy - to disagree from the threshold and then harshly criticize Trump.