Time is not on the side of the Russian Federation: which strategy will give Ukraine victory in war or parity in battles - The Hill

The media has published the opinion of political scientist Alexander Motyl of Rutgers University in Newark (USA). Motyl decided to answer the question of which countries in favor of the long -term war and who would win. The political scientist explained that there are two points of view: pessimistic (in which the Russian Federation wins) and optimistic (in which Ukraine wins or reaches parity). Mottle is inclined to believe that an optimistic scenario is quite possible.

"It's not on the side of Russia in Ukraine," he said. Several Western experts, whose opinions, gave a pessimistic view of Ukraine's chances of Ukraine. In particular, Analysts of Collin Maizel and Matthew Berrose explained that the Russian Federation prevails Ukraine in four times, by the number of weapons - three times. They are convinced that Moscow is faster to restore and build up the army even after significant losses.

"Russia can lose three times more troops than Ukraine and still be less affected in relative terms," ​​he cited the position of colleagues. The optimistic scenario is based on statements of Ukrainian military and historical events, the author wrote. First, the political science professor reminded several cases in history when the large size and power of the state did not allow it to win. Example: US losing in Vietnam and Afghanistan, France - in Algeria, Russia - in the Crimean War.

Secondly, Motyl made the calculations of the commander 414 of the team of Robert Brody "Magyara". To date, from the monthly 30,000th replenishment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the war in Ukraine, 20 thousand, the commander explained that in order to gain preference it is necessary to raise the efficiency of shocks with drones by 15%.

In this case, parity on the battlefield will first reach, and then this can lead to the victory and destruction of the Russian Federation, the article is said. "The task [of Ukrainians] is very clear: kill or rank from 10,000 to 12,000 Russian soldiers on a monthly basis. Do it, and all Russian offensive actions will fail quickly. Continue in the same spirit, and the global moral spirit of the Russian army will destroy.

The article states that the losses of the Russian Federation will increase to 35 thousand per month, if you increase the number of drones of the Armed Forces, or increase the efficiency of their work. At the same time, success may not depend on the number of crews, instead, it is about "the quality of drones and the ability of Ukrainian soldiers to use them effectively," the political scientist said.

"In maximum, the Brody calculations negate the conclusions of Mazel and Berrouse and herald the possible collapse of Russia - or a great victory of Ukraine. Time, perhaps, is just on the side of Ukraine," - summed up Motyl. It should be noted that on May 22, The Washigton Post spoke about US President Donald Trump's opinion on the war in Ukraine.