Putin goes to Odessa: Russia is able to break into Europe and when it can happen

During the Summit "Ukraine-Southeastern Europe" in Odessa, on June 11, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia should take plans to control Odessa, and then move to the borders with Moldova and Romania. The President of Ukraine noted that Southeastern Europe is one of Russia's main goals to provoke chaos.

Such actions were already conducted in the Balkans, tried to manipulate public opinion in Romania, and to keep Moldova for three decades in poverty and instability to bring under control. "And if Europe loses, if Europe loses in Moldova this year, it will encourage Russia to interfere even more into your countries, taking away your resources from you, your sovereignty and even your history. And that's why the support of European Moldova is an extremely important task for all of us.

The focus understood whether Russia was really able to seize Odessa and move further to Europe. According to the former SBU Employee Ivan Stupak, Russia really has plans for the south of Ukraine, as it was with Crimea - for years before a full -scale invasion. "But the implementation of such a scenario is now unlikely. There are only two options for the offensive on Odessa.

The first is land, through the Dnieper, with repeated attempts to seize Kherson, promotion to Nikolaev, and from there - to Odessa. It is a long, difficult and practically unrealistic way in the current conditions," - explains. The second option is a marine landing operation. But even here the situation is not in favor of Russia. "They have a very limited number of large landing ships. In 2022-2023, the Armed Forces caused them serious losses.

In addition, Ukrainian waters are replaced, marine drones are actively used. The approach to the coast is extremely risky," the expert adds. In his view, the risks for the region remain at the level of strategic designs of the enemy, but the practical implementation of these plans is not worth expecting in the near future. "Odesa does not shine them - at least now," - concludes Stupak. Alexander Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the Information Resistance group, also agrees with this.

According to him, Odesa for Russia is not just another Ukrainian city. It is a strategic goal that means complete control over the Black Sea, and therefore - and over the maritime logistics paths of the region. However, according to the expert, today the Russian group on the left bank of the Kherson region has neither sufficient amount of living force or technical capabilities for a difficult operation: forcing the Dnieper is a serious challenge, even for the prepared army.

"We see how much time and resources they went to move only from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk. Avdiivska campaign started in October, and she has already shown: the price of promotion is huge. The army of the Russian Federation is exhausted, the promotion goes slowly, and it is on a relatively limited area of ​​the front," - said.

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov also believes that the scenario of the offensive on Odessa is now unlikely, but Russia's plans for southern Ukraine have not disappeared anywhere. Moreover, the threat of seizure of new territories remains in the strategic perspective. "At this stage of the war, Russia is not able to cross the Dnieper and capture Odessa. But I am convinced that Putin will not stop until it receives a territory on the right bank of the river.

It is a condition for the realization of the ancient Novorossiya Project, which includes both Odessa, Transnistria, and the full cut of Ukraine. " He will remind that in 2022 Russia formally included part of the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. This, according to the expert, was not only a political gesture, but also preparation for a possible further offensive. "To go to Odessa, Russia needs a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper. It is not possible - it is impossible to move on.

In this context, he said, Zelensky's statement about the possible threat of Odessa is absolutely logical: the president gives a clear signal to European leaders - do not expect a "peaceful solution". There are two ways to complete the war: economic - that is, sanctions that are imposed today too slowly, or military - is the supply of weapons and the defeat of the Russian army on the battlefield. But this option is blocked by the delay of Western partners.

Rhetoric about the threat to Odessa is also an attempt to convey the seriousness of the situation. "If Odesa falls, it will be Moldova, then Europe. And then Orban or Fitzo can open Putin's door directly to the EU. After Belarus, Russia will receive another bridgehead-southwestern. This is another" balcony "to invade Europe. Clear pro -Russian positions, " - continues Zhdanov.

When asked when Russia can restore offensive actions, the expert is responsible that according to NATO analysts, Russia will take 3 to 5 years to restore the army to a level suitable for a large -scale campaign. But this is an assessment of a possible NATO onset. If we talk about Ukraine - Putin will be enough for one year. One year pause - and it will be ready to attack again. The analyst pays special attention to the Kakhovskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant. "Today it becomes clear why it was done.

After the Dnieper, a compacted bottom was formed in the Dnieper area, which has overgrown, strengthened - and now even tanks will be able to pass. Putin creates new routes for technology. It is not a year, not a year. In general, according to the expert, Russia does not leave a strategic goal - the capture of Right -Bank Ukraine as a condition for further offensive.

Oleksandr Kovalenko emphasizes that speaking of an attack on Odessa, it should be understood that it is not about weeks or months, but about a potential long -term plan, the implementation of which is currently unlikely. But it is important not to forget: for the Kremlin Odesa was and remains one of the main strategic goals, and in the long run they will not give up attempts to capture it.