The war in the media, not in reality: as the conflict of Serbia and Kosovo will affect the war in Ukraine

The tension between Serbia and Kosovo with the support of the Russian Federation can lead to another war in Europe. Experts believe that the likelihood of conflict is low, because Russia is a profitable war in the media, not in reality.

At the end of September, after a shootout in the village of Banska in the north of Kosovo, a representative of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, stated that Serbia had increased weapons on the border with Kos and called what was happening, a destabilizing event. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called Serbia President Alexander Vuchich and demanded "immediate de -escalation" and return to dialogue.

In a few days, the media reported that Serbia had removed some of the troops from the border from Kosovo, and President Alexander Vuchich called any military action counterproductive. Against the backdrop of the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas, the potential threat "another powder barrel in Europe" died. However, in November, Foreign Affairs published an article on the voltage in the stored Balkans.

The authors noted Russia's interest in escalation and warned about the risks for Western countries. "In part, Russia is advice to ignite a historical conflict between Kosovo and Serbia because it is dangerous NATO resources and undermines US power in Europe . . . Even if NATO really repels Serbia, Putin can still win. There will be fewer opportunities to help Ukraine, ”the article said.

The incitement of conflicts in different points in the world is included in the Kremlin's geopolitical interests, focus experts say. The Russian elite is of the opinion that any instability distracts the West countries from a purposeful policy against Moscow. And since traditionally, Russia considers the Balkans its sphere of influence, the strengthening of ethnic and religious tension between Serbia and Kosovo lies in the sphere of their interests. "It is Putin's strategy.

He believes that the emergence of chaos in different points in the world will distract the attention of the United States. , in our case - from Ukraine, " - says Focus political analyst Igor Reityrovich. Serbia President Alexander Vuchich pursues a purposeful approach of rapprochement with the EU, and the real escalation of the conflict is unprofitable for him, as Kosovo's problem remains a major obstacle to the country's European integration.

However, Serbs are not interested in armed conflict, experts say. Despite the fact that the Western media suggests a "Crimean scenario", in which the Serbs with the support of the Kremlin will send "green men" to establish control of northern Kosovo, the likelihood of this is low. Serbia's management understands that any action that can increase the tension in Kosovo will be immediately neutralized by the United States.

It will not work to achieve the desired result, but to spoil relations with the Western countries, including the European Union. Serbia President Alexander Vuchich pursues a purposeful approach of rapprochement with the EU, and the real escalation of the conflict is unprofitable for him, as Kosovo's problem remains a major obstacle to the country's European integration. According to experts, the results of negotiations that have been going on since 2014, Vuchich will not become.

"I think any conflict will be resolved in the political and diplomatic key. As in the 1990s, when all of Yugoslavia was covered by war-there will be definitely. Other conditions, resources and political schedules in the region now," Raitrovich adds. According to the expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Igar Tyshkevich, the only reason that can push Serbia to a great war - large -scale ethnic cleansing. However, Kosovo will not go. "It's rather a myth than reality," says Focus Tyshkevich.

It is likely to be "hot phase" of the conflict, if it comes, then in the information space. This is extremely beneficial to Russia. After all, for the war in the media, you do not need to spend large -scale resources and make efforts to maintain a degree of stress. Assuming that the conflict under certain conditions will still develop into an armed clash, according to experts, this will not reduce assistance to Ukraine by Western countries.

"Theoretically, if the conflict is ignited, the EU will take a position of political and diplomatic regulation in the format of the Minsk agreements, as it was a long time in Ukraine. There will be no language about supplying weapons. NATO countries may participate in conflict, but the scale cannot be compared to Ukraine, Therefore, it is not necessary to worry that it will turn the Western world, ”Reitrovich adds.

Experts say that the "hot phase" of the conflict is likely to come, if it comes, then in the information space. This is extremely beneficial to Russia. After all, for the war in the media, you do not need to spend large -scale resources and make efforts to maintain a degree of stress. "About the potential war in Kosovo and the inability of a conditional measure to ensure the settlement of the conflict peacefully written in Russian -speaking media more than in English.

How many American politicians read Russian -speaking media? I do not think a lot. It is necessary to understand what signals send the Russian Federation. The information is calculated on us, "Tyshkevich notes. We will remind, according to the Russian media, the Russian Federation recruits in its army of Serbian mercenaries and places them in residential premises in the suburbs with the intention to create a full brigade from Serbian soldiers.