Si Jinping's decision: China intended a great game around the war of Russia and Ukraine

There is something to be elected between lines from public comments of two leaders, from official applications. There is not something important and specific - neither the issue of peace nor on the supply of Chinese weapons of Russia (there is no official information at all, which is very indicative). This visit can be called an event of high expectations. Especially for Moscow. At the same time it was the visit of the inflated fears of Washington.

In the US capital, in general, the Chinese topic is increasingly reacting. Sometimes, as for me, too much. There were no high expectations in Ukraine. Rather, there was a certain stress associated with the uncertainty of China's further actions. A similar reaction, to me, was in European capitals. But Beijing seems to have no special excitement.

For Chinese leadership, the very fact of this visit was important in the context of their long -term confrontation with the United States, not specific results. They think about this way: Biden came to Kiev, and in this way he marked his sphere of influence, and Xi Jinping came to Moscow and also marked his sphere of influence. There was nothing wrong and nothing encouraging. In Moscow, there was an inflating cheeks on the Russian and Chinese side. Something like this will continue.

In the Kremlin, they will be happy with the illusion that we have a powerful ally, it will not let us lose this war, or can help it win. In exchange, they already agree to the yuanization of bilateral trade relations, to the role of the raw material appendage of Russia and China's political instrument in its confrontation with the United States. And China will look like it helps Russia (but it will do it very dosed without direct and official military assistance).

At the same time, Beijing will imitate a peacekeeping role. Why will it mimic? And because there are no specific peaceful proposals from China, except for calls for ceasefire. China will participate in a major diplomatic game around the war between Russia and Ukraine, but will not rush and act in circumstances. Therefore, Ukraine should not fuss in relations with China.

One simple thing should be understood - China will not be on the Ukrainian side (because of its confrontation with the United States), but it is not profitable (even risky in economic terms) to get involved in a conflict in Russia. Therefore, the dual, formally peacekeeping position of Beijing will continue to continue, at least in the near future. And we must act accordingly. To conduct a calm, respectful dialogue with China, to carefully explain our position and our interests.

China will not be a friend, but in no way can China be treated as an enemy. At least this cannot be shown. But in a longer perspective, we need to understand that the world is being divided into two large coalitions - on the one hand, a collective event (a coalition of democratic states), and on the other - an anti -American coalition of authoritarian regimes headed by China. And between them will maneuver most countries of the global south. It is clear that we will be in the Western Coalition.

This is the only possible scenario for us to guarantee national security. Of course, the real picture of this international confrontation will be less contrasting, complex and mosaic. But the trend will be just that. This does not mean that a new cold war with the risks of the New World War between the two coalitions is always waiting for us. It is the risk of mutual destruction that will be restrained by both sides. In addition, the Chinese think more rational than the current Kremlin rulers.