By Eliza Popova
Putin is convinced that the existence of an independent Ukraine is threatening Russia. He considers the elimination of Ukrainian identity and statehood with survival issues. Any compromise in such logic is unacceptable for him. The Russian leader was so identified with the war that its result became the key to his power and even life. More than a million killed and wounded Russians and the destroyed economy leave him only one way out - to continue the offensive to avoid collapse.
After the war, hundreds of thousands of armed and disappointed military will return to Russian cities and villages. This threatens the crime explosion and even the overthrow of the regime - a scenario that the Kremlin knows well from its own history. Putin's military economy provides profits of oligarchs, officials and power structures. The transition to a peaceful model will mean loss and instability that will weaken its power. The war allows Russia to maintain the image of "world power".
But after its completion, it will be obvious that the country has become an appendage dependent on China and North Korea. The loss of status will be another blow on Putin's positions. Thus, according to Motyl, Putin will never choose peace voluntarily. If the international community seeks the real end of the war, the key to this is not "fake negotiations", but the elimination of the very cause of the conflict - the Russian regime.
USA
Українська
English
Français
Deutsch
Italiano
Polski
Čeština
Español
Slovensku
