Direct negotiations of Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Istanbul: whether Zelensky and Putin will be able to bring peace

After the negotiations, it was announced that “Ukraine and all allies are ready for a complete and unconditional ceasefire on land, in the air and at sea for at least 30 days” from May 12 without prior conditions. On the night of May 11, Putin put forward a counter -proposal: "Restore direct negotiations without any preliminary conditions" and gather in Istanbul, "where they were held earlier", on May 15.

Thus, Putin, although he did not directly reject the proposal for a 30-day truce, put forward a mirror formula: first negotiations and then ceasefire. Trump responded optimistic to recent events, although he did not express his direct support for either Ukrainian-European or Russian proposal. However, soon the US President finally placed all the dots over the "I", calling Zelensky to participate in negotiations with the Russian Federation without ceasefire on May 12.

Instead, Zelensky noticing (video) that he would wait for Putin on Thursday in Istanbul, expressed his hope that the Russians would not look for reasons this time "why they can't come. " Possible direct negotiations with the Russian Federation in Istanbul open a number of opportunities for Kiev, the political scientist, the head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies (CAS) Igor Chalenko is convinced.

In particular, in a conversation with focus, the expert stressed: “Ukraine is now extremely interested in installing a thirty -day truce and this topic will be as much as possible by our side during a probable Thursday meeting in Istanbul. If there is an opportunity, if there is at least one chance to stop bloodshed - this chance should be used, despite the fact that Putin's rhetoric testifies to the reluctance to deviate from his ultimatic requirements.

" Despite Moscow's desire to return to Istanbul rails in 2022, the political scientist notes, on the contrary, it is a chance to escape from this format. “The fact is that in the framework of indirect diplomacy, we have discussed a peace plan with the United States and Europeans in recent months, which, incidentally, has been brought to Moscow, as well as Ukrainian-European developments.

That is, without giving up Istanbul, in parallel, we do not lose the possibility of inclining the Russian side to the specified framework and coordinate system. In the document that Vitcoff brought to the Russian Federation Ukraine also goes to a number of compromises, but nevertheless, it is not an ultimatum of the Kremlin's sample of 2022 in Istanbul.

In general, I consider Putin's statement about Istanbul an ill -advised step, which is evidence of a certain geopolitical panic, ”Igor Chalenko notes. In his opinion, the round of probable direct negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Istanbul on May 15 is a "specific test", which will show whether Moscow is ready to move through de -escalation.

“If in the negotiations in Istanbul, Moscow does not take specific compromise steps, the West simply does not have a choice, except to implement the arrangements reached on May 10 in Kyiv between Zelensky, Macron, Older, Merza and Tusk in Communication. It is very important that Trump himself in his post clearly stated that if there are no touch points in Istanbul, the US and Europe will act accordingly.

That is, there is already an understanding of the further plan of action, so I think that it is really worth the Istanbul to visit, and this is definitely not the following Russian narratives, ”the political scientist emphasizes.

Note that in the context of Istanbul-2, official Kiev is in a promising and active position, the expert summarized: “Operately agreeing at the highest political level for a meeting in Istanbul, on the one hand, we did not allow the Russians to finally take the initiative, and on the other, we have demonstrated their realization. This is a very important signal for the world.

It would be very good if our partners have announced now, for example, the introduction of anti -Russian sanctions from May 20 or June 1, and then, in case Trump with duties, you can ask a pause. This format, in my opinion, would greatly strengthen Ukraine's position in Istanbul.

"  Commenting on focus the question of how the meeting of Ukraine and the Russian Federation in Istanbul on May 15 can influence the further peaceful process, political scientist, the head of the political and legal programs of the Ukrainian Center for Public Development Igor Reitrovich emphasized: “The level of representation in Istanbul is an important aspect. Zelensky clearly said that he would go to Turkey on Thursday, but there are great doubts about Putin.

If the Kremlin head refuses to travel, then all history with Istanbul will turn to us in a positive one from the point of view that we will once again demonstrate Trump's readiness for real negotiations with Russia and lack of such readiness from Moscow. In such a situation, Trump, like Europeans, will not have a different choice but to impose new rigid sanctions against the Russian Federation and significantly strengthen Ukraine's support.

" Modeling a "fantastic" scenario, when Putin comes to Istanbul, the political scientist noted: “If Zelensky and Putin manage to meet face-to-face in Istanbul, which looks absolutely unlikely, then it is really possible to create appropriate working groups to prepare for real negotiations. However, I do not exclude another scenario: on Thursday, the President of Ukraine arrives to Turkey, and the Russians instead send a more or less representative delegation there.

It is clear that Zelensky himself will not meet, but other people can delegate and then the process of a real truce can really start, and this can be a real consequence of Istanbul negotiations. " Igor Reityrovich believes that the meeting of Ukrainian and Russian delegations in the absence of Putin himself in Istanbul will make a "significant step" in the direction of the truce, while leaving the opportunity for the head of the Kremlin.

  “However, you should not forget for a moment that a new Istanbul is needed for Putin to continue the Istanbul-2022 chain, where, according to the logic of the Russian Federation, Ukraine had to capitulate. To put it in general, Putin seeks anything to go on direct negotiations with Ukraine - without the participation of the US and Europeans.

The Kremlin believes that it is in this format that they will be able to squeeze Kiev, so we, without rejecting any peaceful initiative, should be extremely careful not to reach the point when Americans and Europeans wave their hand and say, saying, agree on alone with Moscow, " Meanwhile, the US edition of AXIOS, citing sources, reported that the President of Ukraine will arrive on the proposed Russian negotiations in Turkey on May 15, even if Russia does not stop fire.