Budanov is not Gordon: whether Putin's disappointing forecasts of GUR for 2025 will come

Answering the question of the leading telemorathon about what Ukrainians should be expected in 2025, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Cyril Budanov said: a year ago I was asked a similar question, and I was quite honest that, unfortunately, 2024 will be very much He is difficult.

According to the chairman of the GUR MOU, Russia is able to continue the war, but if "not snapped until mid-2025", then it "will have to make very difficult decisions" related to its financial and economic systems. "Are they ready for it? Perhaps ready. Do they want it? One hundred percent I can say that they do not. So they will do everything to prevent it," Cyril Budanov summed up.

Emphasizing that Budanov's forecasts are built on complex data of Ukrainian intelligence, political scientist Maxim Jiggun said in conversation with focus: "Information head of the GUR, is convinced, concerns not only data on the state of the Russian economy, but also a whole layer The information of military analysts who say that there is very little tanks in the Russian Federation, and artillery also can confidently predict difficulties for Russia. , this amount is about $ 40 thousand.

Cyril Budanov, the expert notes, is an apologette that any military campaign has certain cycles and "judging from his forecast, in Russia there is less and less diverse resources to carry out its offensive campaign. " "Let it be there, but our enemy is smart and Nabiullini (the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation) is still managed to manage the risks, although the further it is more difficult.

Therefore, the military factor, plus the economic factor is the components of Budanov's forecast. " The third important point, Maxim Jigun notes, is international political weather, in particular, returning to Donald Trump's White House. "Trump's desire to strengthen oil production and collapse the price of black gold, undoubtedly a bad signal for Moscow.

But it should be borne in mind that Budanov has closed information and it is quite possible What other swans, ”the political scientist emphasizes.

Having expressed the belief that Russia has always demonstrated rhetoric that corresponded to the situation on the battlefield, political scientist, emphasized: "If we recall the fall of 2022, when the Ukrainian military returned almost the whole Kharkiv region and the Right Bank of Kherson region, Rhetoric Patrushev, Peskova, Lavrov, And Putin himself was completely different than they say, let's meet, look for ways of settlement and common points.

The agenda and encourages the Russians to press. " Meanwhile, with the course of a change in the situation associated, first of all, with the military and economic exhaustion of Russia, the expert will be confident, and the tone of the Kremlin will change: "That is, the rhetoric of Moscow is a dynamic unit that can change promptly depending on the state of affairs. And our task is to make their state of affairs as much as possible.

" Political scientist Oleg Lisny in conversation with focus makes the following emphasis: "Any war is not only weapons, but also resources for its production, but also financing of living power. And in this sense, liberal or, say, opposition Russian experts, prophesy The Russian Federation is not a very successful year in the economic terms.

In the situation of the collapse of the Russian economy, emphasizes, political scientist, a chain reaction will arise: "It is undoubted Revolutions, mass riots, etc. , but this is exactly about distrust of the regime. It is also difficult to say the plans of the Americans in the person of Trump, how it will happen quickly, it is difficult to say, but Syrian case has clearly demonstrated that even11 days are enough to collapse. .

"In any case, Budanov is not Gordon to simply nightmare people in some words and eventually sit near a broken trough with a sense of fulfilled duty. Budanov is the top of a comprehensive study The trends in 2025 are really positive for us, "Oleg Lisz concludes. Meanwhile, the Moscow correspondent of the British TV channel Sky News Awor Bennett expressed his conviction that the Russian-Ukrainian war would end in 2025.

At the same time, he emphasized that the fighting could stop and the conflict would be frozen. "The Kremlin hopes to complete the talks by May 9, when the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany will be celebrated. The purpose will be double celebration," Bennett notes. In his opinion, no matter what the result, "Russia will present it as a victory. " The end of the war in 2025 also predicts Financial Times.