Favorable conditions: ISW experts evaluated the prospects of the Russian Armed Forces on Kupyansk

This conclusion was reached by analysts of the American Institute for War Study (ISW). The officials of Ukraine warn of the possible offensive on Kupyansk and Borov (35 km west of Svatov) in the winter of 2024. In the case of seizure of these cities, Ukrainian armed forces can be displaced from the eastern bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv region, which will create the conditions for future Russian military operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Crawn line, analysts say.

According to experts, the Russian armed forces plan to mobilize the parts that have suffered losses in previous battles to activate offensive operations. The significant increase in the number of Russian troops in the Kupyansk direction has not been officially confirmed. Probably, the Russian military is gradually recovering their resources to continue the operations initiated in October 2023.

"Perhaps the Russian forces conducted a gradual increase in forces, as Ukrainian officials reported that as of October 2023, the Russian military concentrated in Kupyansk and Liman directions of more than 100,000 people," the statement reads. Despite the relative preparation of the Russian Armed Forces in the area, they will probably prefer to carry out local attacks, avoiding large -scale operations, according to ISW.

Information from the British edition of The Telegraph about the possible offensive of Russian troops did not find confirmation in the Ukrainian military who did not notice significant changes in the number of Russian forces. According to ISW, as of January 5, Russian occupation troops advanced in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, but no confirmed changes were recorded on the front line.

One of the Russian military bloggers stated that Russian troops displaced Ukrainian forces from the position in the north and in the center of Sinkivka (northeast of Kupyansk), making the area in a disputed gray zone. Another blogger reported the promotion of the Russian forces up to three kilometers from Ternov and Yampolivka (west of Kreminna), claiming that Russian troops were trying to eliminate the Ukrainian stronghold on the right bank of the Zherebets River in the area.

However, ISW has not yet revealed visual confirmations of these intended successes in Kupyansk or Liman directions. "According to Russian and Ukrainian sources, positional battles continued in Kupyansk in the Sinkivka area and east of Petropavlovka, as well as in the Lyman direction in the Ternovka area and in the Serebryansky Forest," the ISW analysts summarized.