Can't reach the goal: Putin punishes Shoigu for lapses at the front - isw

Dumin, related to Wagner PEC, reported Putin about the region's contribution to a full -scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine. This may indicate Putin's intention to weaken the influence of Defense Minister Sergei Shoig, possibly as a punishment for the inability to achieve the Kremlin's military goals. This is stated in the report of the American Institute of War Study (ISW) of May 2.

Dumin identified three main topics in his report: providing housing for combatants in Ukraine, modernization of the defense-industrial base and improvement of the medical system of Tula region. This can be seen as Dumin's attempt to earn Putin's commitment, especially after the loss of his commitment during the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigogine in 2023.

Putin perhaps consciously held this meeting after the arrest of Deputy Defense Timur Ivanov on April 24 and before the future presidential inauguration on May 7, to express dissatisfaction with the Defense Ministry for its inability to achieve military goals, American analysts say. This meeting has caused wide discussions in the Russian media. Many bloggers and political analysts noted her coincidence with the arrest of Ivanov and the expected changes in the government after inauguration.

Some Russian sources suggest that Dumin can be appointed to a new position in the field of defense-industrial complex. Shoiga's statement on May 1 on the need to increase the quantity and quality of weapons is probably regarded as an attack on certain politicians.

According to the Russian informant, on May 1, Sergei Shoigu expressed sharply criticism against the Minister of Industry Denis Manturov, "Rostekh" and the deputy chairman of the Russian Council Dmitry Medvedev in response to the arrest of Timur Ivanov. Shoigu was expected to maintain a close relationship with Ivanov and his arrest, as well as the sudden appearance of Dumin in the political arena, may indicate dissatisfaction with the Kremlin Ministry of Defense.

However, the other source suggested that the probability of showing Shoig's resignation in 2024 is small. "Putin and Dumin's meeting suggests that Putin is most likely a responsible person who makes the decision on the arrest of Ivanov. Isw regularly states that Putin regularly changes officials and warlords, then in favor, against, hoping to stimulate different factions His goals, "the ISW report reads.

American analysts also point out that Putin often demonstrates his power, arranging noticeable meetings with members of "opposition" factions or releasing military commanders. For example, in August 2023, Putin humiliated Dumin, canceling their planned meeting and obliging him to publicly accompany Shoigu on one of the events. According to ISW, this action testified to the victory of Shoig's environment in the Defense Ministry and the loss of Putin's Dumin.

The Russian Federation also made arrests and dismissal of officials and commanders after the rebellion of Prigogine in the summer of 2023. According to ISW, Shoig's connection with Ivanov and the return of Dumin to the fore can indicate the Kremlin's dissatisfaction with the work of the Ministry of Defense. We will remind, on May 2 in the intelligence of the United Kingdom that the case against the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russian Timur Ivanov may in the near future touches other officials.