War in 2025: Is Ukraine worth hoping for a close peace from Trump

It is quite obvious that on the threshold of the fourth year of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the role of a key peacekeeper is trying to play the US President, who has already had time to communicate with Putin on the phone and suggested that he would meet with the head of the Kremlin face-to-face by late February. In addition, the first from the beginning of the full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation has recently taken place from the submission of Donald Trump.

The official meeting of American and Russian delegations. In parallel with this, the White House communicates with Ukraine. In particular, the special representative of the US President Kit Kelloggus visited Kiev, and during the recent Munich Security Conference, negotiations with Vice -President Jay Venti was held Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Thus, despite the scandalous statements of the US President, the dialogue between Kiev and Washington continues.

At the same time, Trump, who, as a presidential candidate, assured that he would put an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war for 24 hours, speaking at the investment summit in Miami recently, stressed that it is possible to resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a year, "because the third world may begin. The war that we are not so far away.

" The fact that this year the chances of cessation of at least an active phase of hostilities are much higher than in 2024, political scientist Igor Reitrovich is convinced. "What can be said exactly is that Ukraine has forces and means on the one hand to resist Russian aggression, and on the other - not lost the unity of society around this struggle.

At the same time, it is the unity of society that is the most important factor and The resource we need to use the maximum in negotiations with our partners. It does not have to, "the expert notes in conversation with focus. Meanwhile, in his opinion, 2025 looks more promising than the previous year in the context of peace establishment. "At least, we already see some steps towards attempts to go to peaceful settlement. When these steps are brought to the level of proposals - a question.

I think it will take not years, but months and closer to autumn can be reached an agreement on the ceasefire. But the main question is how much this arrangement will be quickly implemented de facto, "-sums up Igor Reityrovich. Under the prism of optimistic expectations, they look at 2025 and other experts with whom the focus spoke with.

Despite Trump's rhetoric and the "catastrophy trend" regarding the perception of current events, in the fourth year of a full -scale war on the probable surrender of Ukraine, it is not necessary to speak, says political scientist Oleg Posternak. Instead, in a conversation with focus, the expert noted the following: "I consider the chance to be guaranteed peace this year. However, it is unlikely As a result of the guaranteed peace.

And the Russian Federation will try to get even those parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions that it has not occupied. It may undergo significant restrictions in the amount of armed forces, which Russia will also stubbornly insist. " The expert predicts that in all four outlined areas, Ukraine will be forced to compromise.

At the same time, Oleg Posternak emphasizes, if the idea of ​​compromises of Ukraine now has more or less clear outlines, then the position of the Russian Federation in the part of readiness for some concessions remains very foggy. Starting from the mentioned, the political scientist stated: "At this point, the phrase" fair peace "is only one of the definitions of forums and formulas of peace, plans for stability, not more than that.

But will 2025 a point in a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war? Exactly higher than it was last year. Indeed, it will be the year of the end of a full -scale war. " Despite Ukraine's sharp dependence on Western support, there is no reason to speak about the likelihood of surrender. Political scientist Igor Petrenko expressed this belief in conversation with focus.

"Despite the fact that we have diversified Western supplies in incomplete volume, we should not forget that we still have a separate European track, bilateral security agreements with a number of countries and so on. Yes, yes, there is no doubt to expand It is a circle at the expense of the global south, China, but there is no reason to speak of surrender today.

Trump's ambiguous statements, but it should be borne in mind that there are no specific arrangements now, and the US and Russian meeting in Riyadh actually came down to review without specifics. " Stressing that Donald Trump is currently trying to press Ukraine and personally on the President of Zelensky, the political scientist noted the following: "Obviously, the old-new US president was offended that the Ukrainian president did not immediately sign the Rare Earth.

Trump's rigid rhetoric with respect to Bankova, including 4% of Zelensky rating, that is absolutely not true. In order for the United States to completely donate Putin Ukraine. " Given the current dynamics, Igor Petrenko predicts that if peace is reached in 2025, this peace will be unfair to Ukraine and the key issue will be how unfair.

In the worst scenario, the political scientist says, there will be a freezing of the conflict with a parallel removal of diverse anti -Russian prohibitions and sanctions. The political scientist calls this development the actual victory of Putin, which will receive 20% of the Ukrainian territories, the land corridor to the Crimea, guarantees regarding Ukraine's neutrality, etc.

In the case of practical implementation of the other - a half -scenario, models Igor Petrenko, Ukraine, although it will make certain concessions, will receive instead in a particular form of security guarantee and continuation of Western financial and military support. This half, or otherwise, compromise peace, Igor Petrenko also considers unfair.