Putin will not go to peace: As the fall of Assad increases Ukraine's chances of victory

Victory for Ukraine and the West is impossible without changing the regime in the Russian Federation, which is afraid of the same event, and is unfounded. Biden would never dare to approach such a change, though he once spoke about it. All the possibilities provided in recent years were consistently lost, and effective measures - such as sealing and reducing the "price ceiling" - have not been used.

Trump is more decisive, but he is still doing everything to "come in in the middle" with Putler, despite the fact that he has been "fighting with America" ​​for a long time. However, the compromise proposed (in an ultimate form) concerns the territories, but not not the sovereignty of Ukraine: Trump wants to repeat the Afghan "feat" of his predecessor. But any effective guarantees from further Russian aggression are naturally unacceptable to Putler.

Our main chance - that Putler will start to bark, Trump (along with the rest of those who doubt) will be convinced of his unaccompaniedness and agrees to accept the risks associated with changing the regime in the Russian Federation as less evil. And the main danger is that Putler will agree, but the attempt by the truce will lead to destabilization in Ukraine (warmed by Putler), and this will end there.

In particular, Valery Pekar quite reasonably noted in his analysis of the scripts that Putler, as a former KGBist, would not be peak "in the forehead", but will try to circle Trump around . . . finger, well, or what he was about to twist the new-old President. Fiona Gill described well how it happened earlier. However, it is very difficult and dangerous to retreat - not only psychologically, but, most importantly, from the point of view of his power.

He put a Bank on the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, and also recorded the accession of four regions in the Constitution. Meanwhile, he is not just a dictator (strictly speaking, he has not yet become a full dictator), but the "supreme pshan" of the mafia state. This is not called because the mafia rules there, but because it is arranged as a mafia. That is, his power is not from God, but is kept on self -fulfilling expectations of subordinates.

Such a pad cannot show the slack (which in these circles, and in general in Russian culture, a compromise is considered), it is not entitled to a mistake and should be around the "alpha male" in general. Putler was already "screamed" during the Prigoginsky Putch, when he was scared, fled and left the subordinates to rake the situation. This is not surprisingly, he came out of his hands - probably because Prigogine was an even more terrible alternative. But the story was already forgotten.

And the failure in Syria is quite fresh, and after it to compromise, which involves the abandonment of the main "goals of your" - even more risky: it turns out that the retreat is already a "system", not a chance. Plus, all indentations - from Armenia, now from Syria - are explained and justified by the highest priority, destroying us with you. But if Putler refuses to fight for this priority, which he has put everything, then the question of all previous indentations will inevitably raise.