Syrsky's purpose: Significant changes to the Armed Forces can be seen in March-April-Analyst
In addition, Cooper focused on the fact that changes in the strategy and tactics of the new head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky should be expected not earlier than a month, because, in his opinion, the new commander should visit the most important command centers, with his own eyes to see the situation and hear the commanders , talk to them, learn about their needs and problems.
"Therefore, I think that some significant changes in the behavior of the Armed Forces we will be able to see in March-April. However (urgent is a change. -Ed. - the analyst emphasized. Cooper reminded the cases where the defense forces officially reported certain events at the front, then changed this message, but with the population, emphasizes Cooper, you need to be honest, say everything as it is, in order not to lose his confidence in the armed forces.
"Of course, it is impossible to talk about everything directly, because you do not want to inform Russian forces. It is important, because very often the Russian command does not know what is happening directly on the front. But this is a separate history," the expert said. He noted that it is worth being more outspoken with the people, it is the only right decision, and what he saw in the last year and a half, did not please him at all.
"This is that the Armed Forces is not sincere with the military and the people. I do not like this trend, and I hope it will change," Cooper said. The analyst emphasized that changes in personnel policy were urgently needed. And this applies not to the Higher Military Command, he explained, but the fighters who are directly involved in the fighting. "For example, you now have some units where the military has only had only one or two weeks of vacation for two years.
For two years of this intense war!" He adds that he knows people who were not at home and have not seen their families from the beginning of a full-scale invasion in February 2022 until November-December 2023. As an example, he cited the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, whose fighters did not break longer in 2-3 days, and after such short-term breaks they were again sent to the front. "This should stop. It is necessary to find a way to rotate units more often to give the military more time to rest.
I know many officers who are just tired. Now winter, cold, people need to have one or two weeks at home with their families to rest" , - the analyst categorically summarizes. And rightly adds that the fatigue of the fighters on the front line is also a problem, because when there are many tired soldiers in the unit, they become less cautious, lose focus and get more serious injuries.
By the way, it also has negative consequences in the long run, as information about such situations, as cooper emphasizes, gets into society and fewer people are ready to be volunteers in the Armed Forces. According to a military analyst, a projectile famine does not mean a decrease in accuracy of hitting by Ukrainian fighters. He agrees that there are more shells in Russia, but they consume a lot of shells and the hits are smaller. "So they come to the fact that they (Russian troops. - Ed.
) Are consuming a lot of shells to destroy the positions of Ukrainian defense, and not to hit individual soldiers. And Ukrainian forces direct the shells more precisely and in the live force of the enemy. , - the cooper proves. As an example, it gives a simple arithmetic: say, the Russians have 100 shells and they need, say, 50 in order to get into someone. So they hit two people using 100 units. "But Ukrainians can have 20-30 shells and they kill 10 Russian military.
So, in this sense, there is a dramatic difference," the expert notes. In addition, Cooper believes that the offensive potential of the Russian army was destroyed in 2022. However, he still does not want to do any forecasts for promotion in one direction or another. For example, when asked about the capture of Kupyansk Russian invaders, he noted that it is difficult to make this forecast. "I would say, at best, 50 to 50.
If really, for example, one of the units holds a certain sector on the front line for too long and people there are tired and do not have enough ammunition, then Russian forces could go forward. But if To take a common picture, I do not consider it probable. I mean they can go somewhere for 2, 3 or 5 kilometers towards Kupyansk, but take it completely - no, this is a completely different story, " - said Cooper. In this way, the Cooper described what the Russian army does.
"The Russian forces have lost their offensive capacity and now they fight literally for the next trench, consume 5,000 shells a day, etc. So it cannot be called an offensive operation. It is actually a war for war. And Putin is not mind that because he plays it on his hand. Time plays a hand, " - says the analyst.
He is convinced that Putin is waiting for Trump to win elections in the United States, then he will be able to withdraw the United States from NATO and stop supplying assistance to Ukraine. So, this is what Putin hopes for - on the collapse of Western allies of Ukraine. And so, in his opinion, Russia can wage a war for another 5-6 years or even longer. "From the point of view of military analytics, Ukraine has a so -called worst scenario.
Why? Because they lose so much of their and new equipment, and the old man, which is transferred for service, they always find what to replace it. For example, they have lost their huge The number of modern artillery over the last two years. It is no longer. Therefore, they replace this artillery with UAV, mini-pavers, "-the expert said. And it notes that it is because of the significant needs for artillery that Russia purchases shells from North Korea and Iran.
He emphasizes that Russia is not easy to get out of the battlefield, unless it is caused by such losses that the Russian forces will have to admit: they are no longer able to continue fighting. "Only in this case we can expect that they will decide to retreat, as they did in Afghanistan. Then the war for them becomes meaningless, because they cannot achieve anything. And in a situation with Afghanistan it worked," the cooper reminded.
Tom Cooper considers a promising and effective strategic campaign of the Armed Forces against the Russian fuel system. However, these operations encounter two problems, says the analyst. "The first is what weapons and in what quantity they have (the Armed Forces. , but there is also a negative side - the warehouse explodes and everything that is destroyed is just a particular fuel, nothing more, " - analyzes the expert.
In other words, Cooper believes that such attacks are not enough, and it would be better to beat the oil refineries, especially in their command centers "Oil processing - this is where the problem is. Therefore, if you hit the command center of the oil refinery, you can remove the entire refinery from Lada one single blow. This is enough. Then the Russian forces will be busy for days, weeks, and possibly for months, restoring the destroyed team center, " - proves the analyst.
It reminds that Russia's problem with team centers is now that they are supported by computers that this country does not produce. "It is dependent on the smuggling of high technology from the west or from China. This means that any blow to the team center brings them double, or even triple problems," the couper suggests. The expert acknowledges that from time to time such attacks of Ukrainian drones strongly affect the specific sections of the Russian front.
"For example, one or two weeks ago was a significant problem with the supply of fuel in the Avdeevsky direction from Russia, there were shortage of fuel for about one week. This organization of fuel supply to the Donbas from other parts of Russia took a lot of time," - He noted. Therefore, Cooper considers the idea of attacks on the Russian fuel system excellent.
"If Ukraine once can produce enough long -range drones, let's say a few hundred, and massacres on the Russian fuel system, which, in turn, causes significant losses, then it could even cause a breakthrough of the front line," - concludes the analyst.