Fear of victory: How to stop afraid of fear of Russia and start fighting for real
By the end of April, just before accepting the help package, the country torn up with the war was devastating its recent reserves and regulating artillery shells - and as a result, the Ukrainian forces began to partially lose its position. $ 60 billion now coming to Ukraine will help to correct this inequality by giving Kiev the opportunity to stop Russia.
The help package also serves as a powerful psychological incentive, giving Ukrainians the confidence that their most important partner will not leave them. But by itself, the help package cannot answer the main question that stands before Ukraine: how to win a war. The contribution of Europe and other countries cannot help - it is necessary to keep Kiev by afloat until the conflict is delayed.
Ukraine needs not only more assistance, but the theory of victory - that some of its partners are carefully avoided. The United States has never planned to support Kiev for several months, even though Congress has authorized the provision of a long -term US support strategy as part of a assistance bill. He focused on short -term maneuvers, such as the long -awaited counter -offensive in 2023, not on viable long -term strategies or goals, including a potential triumph over Russia.
By the end of last year, US officials were maintained even from public use of the term "victory". In the same way, the United States usually avoid calling their goal in Ukraine the defeat of Russia. The only real long -term statement by Washington that he will support Ukraine "as much as it will be needed" is in itself meaningless. Currently, Ukraine has clearly outlined its goals.
They include the release of the entire territory within its internationally recognized borders; return of prisoners of war, deported citizens and abducted children; justice through court prosecution and compensation for war crimes; and creation of long -term security mechanisms. But Kiev and its partners have not yet come to an opinion on how it can be achieved. No one seems to have come up with theory how Kiev can win. It's time to change it.
The event should explicitly stated that its purpose is to victory of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia, and it must undertake to provide Kiev direct military assistance and maintain the growing defense industry of the country. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces must move forward until they are able to expel Russian troops from all over the occupied territory, including Crimea.
As Ukraine progresses to this goal, Russian citizens will eventually become clear that they will continue to lose not only positions in Ukraine, but also huge human and economic resources, as well as their future prospects for prosperity and stability. At this point, the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin may be substantial pressure from the inside and from the outside, demanding to put an end to the war on favorable conditions for Ukraine.
It will of course be difficult to threaten Russian control over Crimea and cause serious harm to its economy. But this is a more realistic strategy than the alternative proposed: settlement by negotiations while Putin is in power. Putin never agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty - and there will never be.
In any case, Russia's rhetoric on the war has become more annihilation, it refers to the Russian Orthodox Church and assumes that conflict is something like the Holy War with existential consequences. Any negotiations in the current circumstances will leave Ukraine with a crippled, divided and that is in the power of the second Russian invasion. In the worst case, this will lead to complete destruction of the country.
As a result of negotiations with an aggressor that intends to genocide, there can be no stable and long -term peace. Ukraine and the West should either win or face devastating consequences. While Americans and Europeans are thinking about helping Kiev to avoid this terrible fate, US officials should remember that if the event is hesitant, it will cause new Russian invasion. Senior military leaders and intelligence representatives of European countries are alarmed about this perspective.
Russia is already threatening to other neighbors, including NATO countries, and it can take a step if Ukraine first conquers Ukraine. Russia's victory will also contribute to China's territorial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, as it exposes the limits of the commitment of the West to protect the sovereignty of its partners. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not in vacuum. The unfavorable result will be felt all over the world.
The fact that Ukraine and its partners do not have a victory strategy three years after the war are a serious problem. Without thinking about any purpose, leaders in Kiev, Washington and Brussels make key solutions gradually and, after all, is incoherent. Ukraine can achieve local success, but not a complete defeat of the enemy; For their part, the western partners of Kiev tend to think only of the next tranche of deliveries.
And without a strategic picture, it will be difficult to support the moral spirit and will to fight in Ukraine and abroad. It will be much more difficult to come up with a victory theory than it would be in 2022, when Russia began a full -scale invasion. Since then, Russia has militized its economy, prepared for a long war, managed to recruit hordes of soldiers and develop large reserves of equipment. But, despite these successes, the doctrine of the ground war of Moscow is still imperfect.
It is based on the use of small infantry groups with the support of some of the armored vehicles for the attacks of different points of the front line, which extends more than 1000 miles. This tactic has allowed Moscow to achieve limited territorial benefits, but only after the loss of a huge number of troops and weapons. Russia's losses, including up to a thousand or more victims a day, approximately correspond to the involvement of new troops, which are much lower than in 2022.
Despite the huge investments, Moscow's capabilities are not limitless. For example, Russia loses as many cars every month as it produces, and it burns its stocks of old armored vehicles at unacceptable speed. And, importantly, Russia is faced with the lack of labor and the lack of resources - due to the combination of Western sanctions, export control measures and the Ukrainian bombing campaign, which limits Russia's ability to process and then sell oil. Moscow is not an invincible force.
Russia's small successes were made possible only due to its predominant advantage in fire power, which occurred only as a result of the cessation of Western assistance. Artillery systems are based on old models, they lack the accuracy and range of action, and its volley fire systems, tanks and aviation equipment cannot be compared to Western models.
If Ukraine is able to increase the accurate strikes of long -range artillery, it will be able to return the arithmetic of war against Russia and impose unacceptable exhaustion to Moscow. In the end, Russia will not be able to replace its workforce and equipment quickly enough. The country's economy will simply not be able to withstand this war in constant losses. If Ukraine has sufficient stocks, it will be able to restrain Russian artillery.
The reinforced air defense system, including F-16 fighters, equipped with a long-range air-air missile, will minimize Russia's attacks on critically important infrastructure within Ukraine, as well as units stationed near the front line. Paralyzing the Russian forces, Ukraine will soon be able to use its Western Far Action systems, such as ATACMS, to destroy Russian management centers and control and air defense.
The event should expressly stated that its goal is a decisive victory of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia. Kiev will also have to use drones in much more to accomplish all these tasks. Ukraine has already demonstrated that it could use unmanned vehicles with devastating consequences; For example, it was thanks to the attacks of drones that the Black Sea Fleet of Russia was failed. The drones also helped prevent large -scale Russian maneuvers on Earth.
And they give Ukraine the opportunity to strike deep into Russia, on Russian oil facilities, military bases and weapons. To resist this threat, Moscow may have to place most of your air defense systems at home. Russia is simply too large to protect both the Motherland and the Front of Battle. It will become even more vulnerable if the United States will allow Ukraine to strike legitimate purposes in Russia, using the weapons provided by the United States.
The process of weakening the Russian position and Russian determination will probably take about a year, after which Ukraine must regain the initiative. Kiev should start a limited counter -offensive again, which will allow the key territories to be returned. If this offensive is successful, Putin's regime may face a crisis, which will lead to heavy losses and failures on the battlefield. In the end, the Russian political system is already cracking.
The unsuccessful rebellion of the leader of the mercenaries Yevgeny Prigogine in 2023, the lowering or arrest of high -ranking military officials, including General Sergey Surovikin, as well as the shocking success of the terrorists of the Islamic state (IDIL) in Moscow in March - all this testifies. If Ukraine comes to a point where Russia is no longer able to hold conquest, Putin will be in deep trouble. Ukraine is already doing everything possible to answer this challenge.
Kyiv increases its ability to use personnel reserves by reducing conscript age and abolishing dismissal from military service. This step is painful but necessary and reminiscent of the projects adopted by many Western countries during both world wars. The event, led by the United States, continues to provide training and counseling, especially for commanders.
The event should continue to supply large numbers of military equipment, especially given that delays in help can give Russia an advantage on the battlefield. But there is another important contribution that the event can make: direct cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industry. In the last two years, this sector has grown in geometric progression; The drone industry, for example, moved from the production of several drones in 2022 to the production of tens of thousands today.
Ukrainian production systems have become more sophisticated, allowing it to impress targets in Russia's depth in ways that would be unthinkable in 2022. The country's success should not be amazed. Ukraine was the kernel of the aerospace industry of the Soviet Union, and today it has many qualified engineers and entrepreneurial spirit. But to fully realize its potential, it needs Western technologies, components, production equipment, suppliers' financing and partnerships.
If the event is able to provide these resources, Ukraine's production capacity will increase sharply, which will contribute to the country's success on the battlefield. For example, with the help of the event, Kiev will be able to increase the production of drones and bring them to the battlefield even faster. The joint Western Ukrainian Industrial Strategy is as important as the military. If the West can help Ukraine's defense industry completely, Russia's positions will become incapable.
It is tactically weak, which makes it vulnerable to a long and large -scale campaign using drones. The Ukrainian air offensive, which will destroy Russian logistics, will put increasing pressure on the Russian economy and military infrastructure, as well as destroy (and not only neutralize) the Black Sea Fleet of the country, will cause shocks within the country, which will probably be threatened by Putin's regime. Moscow is not an invincible force.
Putin's subordinates now believe that the war can be defeated. Only by breaking this faith with the help of Russia's defeat will Ukraine and the West open the door to depart Putin or its possible overthrow. In such circumstances, Putin is likely to prefer self -preservation. And if for some reason he does not do it, this choice can be made by others. In any case, Ukraine should continue the campaign to return the territory.
Some Western analysts, fearing nuclear escalation, may be frightened by such a victory for Ukraine. Putin, of course, tried to encourage such fears over the last two years, hinting that he could use nuclear weapons when the event is considering providing tanks, missiles and aircraft. But Putin never acted according to his militant rhetoric, although the West invariably crossed each of these red lines.
But Ukraine has been expenditures from fluctuations in the United States and Europe; In the summer of 2022, while the partners discussed what help to offer, Kiev lost important opportunities to benefit from their first successful counterattack. The reality is that the Russian nuclear attack provokes such a fierce reaction of the West, especially from the US that Putin is unlikely to be at risk.
It is especially unlikely that it will apply nuclear weapons, as Putin's friends in Beijing is categorically against such blows. The overall fear of the West is reasoned with the fact that decisive defeat can really mean the end of Putinism, leaving Russia in a state of political uncertainty. But the task of the event is not to save the criminal regime from collapse.
Today's Russia is a state that regularly carries out massacres, torture and rape; Conducts sabotage operations and killings in NATO, misinformation and political intervention campaigns. She declared an unsight -like hostility to the West not because the event was doing, but because of what it is. In other words, the Putin regime has long left the community of civilized nations.