Putin's nuclear blackmail in Ukraine
The battle of narratives around the Zaporizhzhya NPP, which is held by Russian troops from March 4, but which is governed by Energoatom, was a microcosm for a broader strategy of each country: Russia uses fear and energy for coercion, while Ukraine is using everything possible to call for greater support. Video Day Technically Fear of a Nuclear Disaster that has been most part of Europe has always been significantly exaggerated.
Zaporizhzhya NPP is a wonderful achievement of engineering with three -meter concrete walls that have already withstood at least one direct hit of a rocket in March. The comparison with the Chornobyl disaster is inappropriate, because in 1986 in the active zone of the Chornobyl NPP for several days burned graphite, and the active zones of Zaporizhzhya NPPs are filled with water and therefore cannot burn.
The report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of September 6 also does not indicate damage to the structures of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, although it noted damage near it, as well as along with new and waste facilities. It is more appropriate to compare with the nuclear catastrophe on Fukushima, when the cooling systems have failed due to damage caused by tsunami.
The complete loss of electricity at the Zaporizhzhya NPP could lead to a similar refusal of the cooling system there, but when Russian blows repeatedly interrupted the connection of the station to the Ukrainian power system in the last few weeks of shelling, it first worked on diesel generators, and then nourished only by self -produced energy. The only working reactor number six was used to produce electricity to power its own cooling systems, also known as an island mode.
In the long run, this could not be called a safe situation. In fact, the IAEA called it "unstable". But even after Fukushima catastrophe, the consequences were quite local. Given the strength of the Zaporizhzhya NPP reactors, capable of holding back any release of radioactive materials, such an accident with the cooling system of nuclear reactors is unlikely to pose the same great threat to the civilian population of Ukraine as Russia's war crimes.
Hysteria for a potential catastrophe was fueled by more complex dynamics than the extent of the risk itself. Nuclear accidents remain the pinnacle of nightmares that cause fear, so even a balanced coverage in the media, as a rule, causes thoughts about the worst scenario. This natural human reaction makes the Zaporozhye NPP a powerful instrument of both Russia and Ukraine.
On September 5, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in his night address stated that it is only interested in keeping the situation as long as possible in Zaporizhzhya NPP. It's true. The introduction of Ukraine and Europe into a state of panic on a possible nuclear catastrophe, of course, gave Russia additional pressure levers in the form of terror, through which it could try to achieve its goal. There is no evidence that this tactic has worked.
However, Russia's attempts to use the fear of a possible nuclear catastrophe were part of a broader effort to kill a wedge between Europe and Ukraine, probably, in order to force Europe to help Ukraine make concessions in exchange for nuclear security. That is why Russia refused to access the station immediately, and then limited both media visits and media access during a visit. Ukraine also accused Russia of an attempt to steal the Zaporozhye NPP.
Ukraine claimed that Russia has tried to redirect electricity from NPP to Crimea or Donbas occupied by Russia. It will be tantamount to the annexation of utilities. Although technically possible, in practice it is a very difficult and difficult task.
Given the inability of Russia to act effectively and correctly in many aspects of its military campaign, it is difficult to imagine in the current situation this cloud of incompetence, which disappears to carry out such a highly sensitive and technical operation related to power grids. Most likely, this is another example of Russia's use as weapons against Ukraine and Europe.
The forced shutdown of the Zaporozhye NPP through the shelling of the facility leads to the shutdown of more than 22% of Ukraine's generating capacity.
In combination with the shelling of thermal power plants, seizure of hydroelectric power plant, shutdown of 12 percent Ukrainian production of renewable energy and tens of blows along the transmission lines and electrical substations, the deliberate recklessness of Russia against Zaporizhzhya NPP is issued part of a broader strategy for cutting Ukraine from energy.
Since consumption in Ukraine has decreased by 35% due to the loss of territory and infrastructure and people during the war, the country has not yet encountered an energy crisis, but the situation may become a crisis when recovery begins. In addition, the loss of more than 30% of the generating capacity of the base load makes the network of Ukraine less stable, which can encourage Europe to postpone the right to Ukraine with commercial exports of electricity to European markets.
Few people who deserve trust are seriously regarding the Kremlin's statements that Ukrainian troops themselves are firing the Zaporizhzhya NPP. But Ukraine is not entirely innocent to use the confrontation around the Zaporizhzhya NPP for provocation and persuasion. The threat of nuclear catastrophe from Russia allowed Kiev to demonstrate the barbarism of Putin and his army of invasion.
It also added to the war of particular severity and relevance in the eyes of some countries and international agencies, which otherwise could continue to consider the attack on Ukraine as a distant tragedy. The most important thing is that the risk of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhya NPP creates unprecedented emotional nutrition for calls and funding campaigns.
Foreign military and financial support of Ukraine supported light in Kiev and helped Ukraine to restrain Ukraine and may even break the course of Russian aggression on the battlefield. However, after more than 200 days of the war, the signs of Ukraine's fatigue increase. Foreign governments should cope with the rise in domestic economic and energy crises at this time. The population around the world is faced with inflation and high energy costs.