Negotiations or escalation. The event requires Ukraine's "real plan" of war for 2025, as is said
Several European diplomats have told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) about the slow but confident promotion of the Russian army in Ukraine, while the support of Kiev by the event is depleted. The Allies support the long -term purpose of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on the return of control over all territories, but some high -ranking officials bow to Kiev to pragmatic military purposes.
The clarity of Ukraine's tasks will help the authorities of the West to defend the need for further supply of weapons to its voters. EU officials believe that Ukraine's full victory costs hundreds of billions of support. Such huge amounts are not able to spend neither the US nor the EU, the WSJ interlocutors emphasize.
The idea of implementing a rational war plan could be handed over to the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and the UK Foreign Minister David Lemmy during a visit on September 11. At the same time, a representative of the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, stated that a trip of diplomats to Kiev was not intended to force Ukraine to negotiate with the Russian Federation.
Zelensky, for his part, could ask officials to allow Russian ATACMS to be killed by Russian farm missiles and British Storm Shadow. Before meeting in Kiev, US President Joe Biden spoke of a compromise about long -range missiles, his administration "working on it". The interlocutors of The Guardian in the British government confirmed the approval of the UK for shelling of winged Storm Shadow missiles in Russia.
According to Reuters, Zelensky will go to Washington in September to show Biden and two of his potential successors (Kamalla Harris and Donald Trump - Ed. ) A plan closer to the end of the war. Kiev and Washington require certainty in relationships with each other. Ukraine wants to understand how long partners will have the strength to support it in military plan. Another important point is on what conditions to negotiate with Moscow, which is also important for the event.
According to Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko, the "real plan" of war is to coordinate joint actions for the next year. Baiden was dissatisfied with the lack of previous information and consultations on the beginning of the Kursk Military Operation. Now Washington seeks to understand what to expect from Kiev, he says.
Currently, it will not be possible to get a parity negotiation with the aggressor: Moscow will only have a dialogue on its own conditions, and it is necessary to make it change the point of view. One of the elements of coercion will be permission to beat the Russian territory at the ATACMS and Storm Shadow rockets, the political scientist added.
"The topic of negotiations of Ukraine and Russia will essentially raise only after the presidential elections in the United States and stabilization of the military situation in Ukraine. As long as Russia there will be an advantage in the offensive and ultimatums - negotiations will not begin," Fesenko predicts. It should be understood that recently Russia has changed its position several times on the possibility of peaceful dialogue with Ukraine.
On September 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that dialogue is possible on the basis of Istanbul documents of 2022, not "some ephemeral requirements". The negotiations, he said, could be China, India and Brazil. However, on September 10, the Secretary of the Russian Federation Sergey Shogu excluded any negotiations with Kiev to displacement of the Armed Forces from the Kursk region. The official's opinion is clearly contrary to Putin's views.
According to the political scientist, the end of the war in Ukraine is demanded by China, Turkey and India, and before the Brix Summit in October 2024, the Russian Federation is obliged to take into account the position of these countries. It is worth recalling that the Ukrainian leader presented a Victory Plan at the Crimean Platform summit in Kiev on September 11. The purpose of the initiative is to force Russia to end the fighting with diplomatic means.
The initiative should have a psychological, political, and different nature of weapons influence on the Russian Federation. Zelensky promises to discuss this plan with Biden, because its implementation depends on Washington. The lack of a desire to achieve peace in Russia is a military cooperation with Iran. The transmission of FATH-360 ballistic missiles could occur in exchange for nuclear technologies for Tehran, thinks in conversation with focus political expert Petro Oleshchuk.
The Pentagon noted that Russia could only transfer intelligence for nuclear programs, space development and other technological capabilities. "Not having the opportunity to resort to details, we see that they share information about nuclear programs, space and other technological capabilities needed by Iran," said the Department Prescretic, Major General Patrick Ryder. Obviously, Russia accelerates the process of transformation of Iran into a nuclear state.
Considering this aspect, it is not necessary to talk about de -escalation and negotiations. Aggressors strengthen each other's military potential, Oleshchuk believes. "The event does not leave another way other than the supply of the Armed Forces. Forcing the Russian Federation to finish the war in Ukraine is good intention, but many countries will have to impose rigid restrictions on Russian goods.
It is not only about oil, but even our Western partners are not ready from it To refuse, not to mention China, India and others, " - summed up the expert. The focus previously described new opportunities for the Armed Forces after the abolition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles in the Russian Federation. Ukraine will be able to increase the area of damage to the military objects of the Army of Russia.