Putin's new front. What the Kremlin wants to achieve in the Balkans
If he wins, it is logical that he will draw his attention to Moldova, the next stop on the way to Eastern Europe, where the separatist enclave of Transnistria is already occupied by Russia. But there is another very attractive goal nearby: Western Balkans. The restless area of the territory in southeastern Europe includes four stable NATO members: Croatia, Albania, Montenegro and Northern Macedonia.
But the Kremlin aimed at other awards: Serbia, Kosovo and ethnically separated country of Bosnia and Herzegovina. How can Putin try to expand the Russian influence and undermine the participation of the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty and the European Union in this important corner of Europe? I have been well aware of this area since NATO's work and as a commander of the US military in Europe.
Prior to that, I participated in the Balkan wars of the 1990s as the captain of the destroyer off the shores of the former Yugoslavia, providing a armed blockade against its aggressive regime. For many years, I have met with most high-ranking leaders in the region, in particular with Serbia President Alexander Vuchich, former President of Croatia Kolina Grabar-Kitarovich and Milorad Dodik, the current leader of the Republic of Serbian (ethnic Serbian part of Bosnia).
After the collapse of Yugoslavia during the incredibly bloody Balkan wars from 1991 to 2001, up to 105,000 people were killed, many of whom were civilians (for example, 8,000 Muslim men and boys were killed in Srebrenica in July 1995). There is tension between Catholics in Croatia, Orthodox Christians, mainly in Serbia, and Muslims in Albania, Kosovo and Bosnia. Putin seeks to benefit from this unfinished story.
He knows that if NATO member states are again involved in control over the restless Balkans, they will be distracted from Ukraine's support. In the Kosovo, the former region of Serbia, which neither Serbs nor Russians recognize the independent state, still there are several thousand NATO peacekeepers.
Last year, the Serbian soldiers were brought to increased warfare after the riots arranged by ethnic protesters in Kosovo, about 100 NATO soldiers were injured; This forced the Alliance to send several hundred additional peacekeepers. Putin clearly encourages Serbia to put pressure on the Kosovo government supported.
He also works on the destabilization of the shaky government of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is divided into a strange tripartite presidency with one representative from each of the three main ethno -religious groups. The most experienced political player is the Dodik, which is closely linked to Moscow. Ten years ago, he told me about the need to separate the Republic of Serbian, which would actually destroy the country.
The remaining part would then join Serbia itself, creating a larger Serbian state, which Putin would gladly support. As the Readmiral Retuiled Mark Montgomery, who was my planning officer in the US European Command: "This is the same type of problem that we faced ten years ago - Putin benefits from what kinds the situation in other parts of Europe, trying to try to weaken NATO's authority and to distract us from the support of Ukraine. " Fortunately, the event has options.
Currently, the idea of placing NATO battalions in Ukraine is unlikely. Therefore, the increase in the number of troops deployed now in Kosovo, and the advance of the riots that Putin tries to ignite, is possible and has a strategic meaning. This would be an example of an effective regional division of efforts within the Alliance: NATO countries in the Balkans and adjacent territories (such as Greece and Italy) can focus on the region.
Members of Eastern Europe and Northern Europe can lead efforts to Ukraine. Big countries in the west - France, Germany, United Kingdom and the USA - have sufficient resources to participate in both processes. In addition to stabilization forces, NATO should remember the use of the so -called hybrid war by Russia. Putin is well able to use social networks, misinformation campaigns and pro -Russian propaganda to create tensions outside his borders.
NATO should use its own information networks to expose and counteract these false narratives. If the Russians decide to raise the rate, they can use cyberattacks against power grids and other vital objects in Kosovo and Neserbian parts of Bosnia. This will create confusion and exacerbate social dissatisfaction. NATO can provide better cyber defense systems for Balkan allies and friends. Finally, there are economic incentives that can counteract Russia's participation.
Serbia desperately wants EU membership, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. Their leaders want to be able to interact with the West and avoid sanctions. The Ambassador of Serbia to the United States recently wrote a letter claiming that Serbia wants only peace. Serbs can demonstrate their sincerity by rejecting Putin's manipulations and allowing the West to focus on their greatest problem: Russia's immoral war with Ukraine.