Shelling - to Trump's inauguration. That awaits Ukraine's energy in the coming weeks
Repetition of shelling: what to wait next? After more than a two -month break, the schedules of the shutdowns returned: the Russians struck a tenth massive blow to the power system of Ukraine. In the tactics of the attack, they returned to 2022 - they were equally beat both on power plants and on substations of the electricity transfer system.
The previous attack, at the end of August, was directed at Ukrenergo substation, and all other attacks in 2024, starting on March 22 - at thermal and hydroelectric power plants. Odesa was in the worst situation after a Sunday attack, because most of the substation of the transmission system was damaged again. Less problems were in Rivne, Volyn and Kharkiv region. This attack was purposeful on the power system.
And the very fact of the massive blow rejects the whole conspiracy that the Russians have come with someone consent that they will not fire us. In addition, it should not be forgotten that in the previous weeks there were strokes, but not massive, but point, which fell on systems of electricity distribution in the frontal areas. Now is this period when the enemy can be profitable to arrange massive shelling.
For the Russians, the strategy of destruction of the power system is not just about creating a deficit we and the introduction of shutdowns. They always try to tie these blows to psychological pressure on society, as well as to political events. Therefore, we will soon start watching all the cracks will get out of conspirators on the subject of shutdowns and will pump about winter, trying to sow panic moods in society.
And with regard to the gaps to political events, I am prone to the fact that the Russians are activating their blows to cause us serious losses before Trump's inauguration. In their logic, it should push a new American administration to a quick settlement, and one that is beneficial to the Kremlin. The enemy's considerations for the future figured out. And what further in our power system? It is quite difficult to talk about the timing of recovery.
But I am a supporter of restrained grades in this case. First of all, generation repair (TPP and HPP) usually lasts longer than the objects of transmission. And it should be borne in mind that the generation today is the "narrow place" of the power system. Even with optimistic estimates, if most damage is not critical (if, for example, not a destroyed machine hall), repairs can take a month or two.
And against the background of temperature decrease will increase in demand, and therefore, it will become more difficult and more difficult to cover the deficiency. A separate problem is low imports against the background of already large enough limits for the same import. We observed this situation last week because in neighboring European countries prices have grown significantly.
And the price capes were lower than the prices in much of hours and in fact made it impossible to import in separate market segments. As a result, the import capacity reached only 100-200 MW of the possible 1,700 maximum. Against the backdrop of breakdowns in the power system, it necessitated the introduction of restrictions for non -home consumers. That is, conditions that will aggravate the situation with a deficit.