The fall of the ruble does not stop. As Putin is in vain tries to keep the Russian currency rate
The obligations of Russian exporters to sell currency revenue within the country became known on October 11. Such a decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin signed after the course of the ruble again pierced a mark of 100 rubles for a dollar. Therefore, the ruble was sharply strengthened - according to the results of the first minutes of trading the next day on the Moscow exchange, the course fell to 96. 59 rubles/$.
However, the tendency to weaken the Russian currency soon resumed, and at the auction on October 16, the dollar increased to 97. 47 rubles. Focus decided to find out from the experts why there was no stable fortification of the ruble and how currency restrictions would affect the population and business of the aggressor country.
According to Vladimir Putin's decree, for some Russian exporters, compulsory repatriation and sale of foreign exchange earnings in the Russian market are introduced for six months. In particular, they will have to count at least 80% of foreign exchange earnings in the Russian Federation within 60 days from the moment of its receipt and sell from 90% of the credited funds, but not less than 50% of each contract.
In addition, there is an obligation for individual companies to represent in the bank of Russia and Rosphinmation of indicative schedule-graphic plans for the purchase and sale of foreign currency in the domestic market. At the same time, individual companies are introduced by Rosfinmmuning representatives, whose task is to monitor and ensure compliance with the rules of currency regulation.
"The main purpose of these measures is to create long -term conditions for increasing the transparency and forecasting of the foreign exchange market, to reduce opportunities for foreign exchange speculation," - said the first deputy head of the Russian government Andriy Belousov. The list of exporters includes 43 groups of companies engaged in ferrous and non -ferrous metallurgy, grain production, forest and chemical industry, as well as energy.
Such restrictions will first and foremost adversely affect Russian entrepreneurs, which are so concerned due to the fall of the ruble. Thus, the share of dissatisfied rubles among Russian industrialists reached 35% - the maximum level since 2016, reports Russian Forbes. In Russia, they want to control the exchange rate, as in China.
There, the daily amount of currency transactions for citizens and companies is limited to $ 50,000 "the ability of the Central Bank of Russia to influence market methods on the ruble exchange rate is quite limited, because the RF's gold and currency reserves for more than $ 300 billion" frozen "in response to Ukraine, in response to Ukraine -explains the focus of the director of the analytical department of the investment company Eavex Capital Dmitry Churin. Russia.
" Moreover, they say that the state -owned top is studying the currency control model following the example of China, Churin continues. According to him, Beijing limits the daily amount of currency transactions for individuals and companies at the level of no more than $ 50,000. In order to carry out transactions exceeding this limit, a company or an individual must apply to the territorial state currency management in order to obtain written permission.
"For ordinary Russians in the event of increased administrative restrictions in the foreign exchange market, it will be more difficult to conduct foreign exchange transactions. It is also not excluded activity in the country, " - the expert is convinced. It is known that the ruble is weakened because there is insufficient currency in the domestic market due to the reduction of export revenue. There is demand for currency by importers and big business.
"First, with a positive balance of payments on the MMVB (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange), a significant shortage of dollars and euros is felt. This is due Banks of buyers. First of all, it is about India where the Russians have more than $ 40 billion from oil sales. Secondly, part of the payments for Russian export occurs in rubles, which in itself reduces the influx of currency from exports.
The rubles are returning to the Russians unevenly, "-explained the focus of Vitaliy Shapran, ex-member of the NBU Council. Against the background of these problems, not least due to the action of sanctions and sucking resources from the aggressor economy for military needs, positive moments in the oil market were imperceptible to the Russian currency. "Since the summer, there has been a significant jump in oil prices, more than 30%.
At the same time, the Russian Federation is increasingly faced with technological problems for production, with loading of warehouses, with problems in exports of diesel fuel, etc. It is less able to generate freely convertible currency, because part of the trade goes to Yuan, Rupia, " - said focus Ivan Uglynitsa, expert of the investment market.
Currency restrictions are capable of maintaining a ruble exchange rate for a short time-the maximum before the election of the President of the Russian Federation in the spring of 2024 by the Russian introduction of compulsory sales of currency by exporters can only temporarily improve the situation-the maximum before the elections in 2024, but then the devaluation trends will return to the ruble. .
According to the outlook, the Government of the Russian Federation will continue to strengthen currency restrictions. "Some banks, such as Raiffeisen, are already forbidding replenishment of currency cards through the Russian ruble, that is, restrictions on conversion, purchase of currency for ruble. Of course, such negative trends are affected in the ordinary population, and further such trends will only deteriorate," The expert noted.