Does the Russian economy collapse: what to prepare for the Russians in 2024

In 2023, Russia, despite the sanctions, managed to increase the oil and gas revenues to the budget and avoid large -scale cutting of critical expenditures. However, this year the economic situation in the aggressor country will be more difficult, experts say. As a result of the 11 months of 2023, the oil revenues of the Russian Federation decreased by 23% compared to last year and are approximately equal to 2021. This indicates that the impact of sanctions was insufficient, experts say.

Focus writes about it in the new article "The Economy of the Russian Federation is growing despite sanctions. Which allows Putin to receive billions for war. " Russia felt the action of sanctions, but it was not as strong as they hoped. "The sanctions were undoubtedly influenced. The influence would be much greater if our allies made appropriate sanctions since the beginning of 2022, because the main sanctions were imposed in 2023," says Focus Chairman of the Board .

However, the Russians have learned to bypass the restrictions on its oil sector, using the shadow fleet. "There is no proportional reduction of income, but there is simply a reduction, because the business is complicated, its development is stopped," comments the director of special prosectors of NTC "Psyche" Gennady Ryabtsev. Any prohibitions are very attractive to gray business, which also earns well.

It is visible in the so-called shadow fleet of tankers, which now transports most of Russian oil exports. " Last year, the government of the aggressor country managed to avoid budget sequester. "During the year, we saw some cuttings on non -labial programs, for example, for example, regretted regional budgets. But large -scale cutting of critical expenditures for the population so far managed to avoid. Also, we did not observe such active use of the national welfare fund until November.

, or large -scale attraction of internal debt, as in the 4th quarter of 2022. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation stays in the sleeve, these two mechanisms to build a budget in 2023, " - said the focus Yulia Pavitskaya, the head of KSE Institute. Increasing expenditures for war has a negative impact on other sectors of the economy.

"Military expenditures to some extent stimulate the national economy, but on the other hand, they undermine opportunities for medium- and long-term development,- comments on the publication of Igor Burakovsky. - Russia does not receive technology for deep oil production, gas, cannot serve aircraft of foreign production, produce its own- without foreign components.

In addition, the western car companies left the market of the Russian Federation, so the share of the Chinese auto industry has increased, not very high quality, which is sold at the price of the middle class. I no longer say that the Russians are experiencing a shortage of individual medicines. " These processes only get worse in the new year, he added. In addition, budget support should be expected.

"Budget support cannot give a positive effect forever and should be curtailed in 2024 or chilled with a stringent central bank policy," Vitaly Shapran shared his opinions with focus with focus. In 2024, stagnation will continue in some sectors of the Russian economy, and the tributary of finances will be reduced through trade with China, experts say, at the same time, the Russian Federation risks losing the main importer of its products, and therefore - a source of revenue for the budget.

"Reducing activity in the economy of the eastern neighbor will reduce Russian exports to the PRC, and other buyers in such volumes for their oil, gas, coal and firewood in the Russian Federation because of sanctions," Shapran added. Not rainbow prospects in the ruble. According to the expert of the market of investment Ivan Uglynitsa, devaluation is waiting for the Russian currency.

"This will be facilitated by further deterioration of socio-economic climate within the Russian Federation, and other geopolitical factors other than the war against Ukraine will also be possible. Selling hydrocarbons will have more problems, including global prices in the event of a recession," he said. Recall that in the mid-December 2023, the European Union officially approved a 12 package of sanctions against the Russian Federations.