Trump's Tariff War is a chance for Ukraine: What are the opportunities a new world order

At the same time, the developing states and… ancient political partners of Washington are the greatest blow: EU, Japan, P. Korea and even Taiwan. But the list is not, for example, the Russian Federation (although 10%are likely to be introduced). Illogically? No. The essence is not in the issues of world trade, but in the logic of the multipolar world and the formation of its own zone of influence. Let's understand together.

To begin with, I will repeat the framework in which American foreign policy is operating today: at the same time, both contenders for world leadership (whether the future poles of the world) are actively forming (or trying to form) their zone of influence without entered into direct confrontation with each other. At least military. Again illogical thesis? By no means, let's give Trump's tariff wars from the point of view of the listed three entrance.

The first thing that comes into the eye during tariff estimation is two categories of countries for which duties are not so high. These are economically weak states (periphery, which in Washington is given the role of a raw material base) as well as South America. The latter is important as the United States is trying to revive the US doctrine for America or the Monroe doctrine.

That is, the strengthening of their positions in both America, combined with a certain kind of political isolationism about the rest of the world. This logic, by the way, puts the preliminary pressure on Mexico and Canada (which are not mentioned in the new list). The first is a potential regional leader who can create competition with the US in expanding the impact on Latin America. The second is the threat of isolationism and a competitor in technology races. Trump needs "obedient" America.

The second is quite high tariffs for countries that are considered partners of the United States. First of all, these are EU countries. And here it is logical - for the United States, the extremely unprofitable transformation of the European Union into another geopolitical pole. An assembly shop, technologically tied to the United States - for the sake of God. Competitor in politics and technologies - categorically not. Europe is given the role of "semi -periphery".

New duties are intended to stimulate the transfer of a number of European industries (especially technological) in the United States, while leaving EU countries expenditures to support regional stability. The same group of states can be attributed to Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Malaysia, Indonesia, India. The approach is similar - an attempt to drag technological production "in exchange" for a "umbrella" that goes.

Taiwan duties can be called an incentive to evacuate technological production to the United States (as TSMC does). Washington, of course, continues to talk about the protection of the island. But, given that there is no consensus among the local community in matters of independence and there are influential parties that advocate for reunification with the PRC, the only mechanism of "protection against China" is occupation.

This is not suitable, so it is necessary to stimulate the process of transferring technologies and production to its territory. The third is the US key partners to ensure that in key regions. It is the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Israel. Washington partners are also possible. Duties on China go "separate graph". On the one hand, it is the beginning of a trade war between countries. On the other, the invitation of SI to the Trump dialogue.

And I am not surprised if, after the American-Chinese summit, much of them can be revised. Russia, the "axis of evil" and potential partners are the amazing generosity of Trump. It is worth starting with low duties for Turkey, Egypt, UAE and a number of other countries. In the conditions of optimization of their presence in a number of regions, Washington requires "counterbalances" - states that can restrain the strengthening of others. Turkey and Egypt are the Middle East.

More precisely, Turkey is also the Black Sea region, Central Asia (opposite of the Russian Federation and the PRC). UAE are the Gulf countries. Well, the question of the need to exist the territory of technology exchange, which is de facto. Russia and Iran are somewhat different logic. Washington does not accept Moscow as a potential contender for world leadership. And in the Kremlin they understand it.

Instead, Russia is important to the United States as an Arctic control partner, a source of resources and a restraint partner at the same time China and the EU. Iran is about the same functionality for China and Turkey in Central Asia. But only in the case of a new "nuclear agreement". By the way, Moscow actively wants to enter the negotiation process as a mediator.

Trump's tariff war (more precisely, the war for economic resources, which include both technologies, production, and logistics) in the conditions of a system of international relations that would end without starting. But when the world system is already destroyed, each of the states will try to look for their mechanisms to get out of the current situation. That is, some of the partners will insist on a mirror response, and some will try to negotiate, making some concessions.

Which, by the way, carries the risks, in particular, the integrity of the EU. But in any case, even by sowing chaos, Washington will be able to form some kind of area of ​​its dominance. Where both America and a number of European countries will enter. Just as it will also lead to strengthening the zone of influence of the PRC - Beijing will use the current situation to demonstrate its policy as an adequate and predictable alternative to fountain of ideas from the new US administration.

For the European Union, this is a challenge. The EU will be forced to solve several tasks that have been postponed for a long time. In particular, Ukraine is at a point where several instability zones converge. Namely: at the same time, Ukraine is still considered by Trump as a country of periphery - that is, a source of resources that can play a role in the counterweight of the Russian Federation. Unenviable, from the point of view of the future, functionality.

But if you look at the above, the regional security system, the international cooperation system is actually destroyed. And the US is not an architect of the new. There are several potential centers of force and processes of formation of new systems. It is about regional unions, the position of Turkey, "Old Europe" and the same Poland as the driver of the Project "TRIMORY".