Quarrel Ukraine and USA: Why are the election topic now blown out and what is the benefit of

The statements of Trump Special Representative for the completion of the Russo-Ukrainian War General Kit Kellog (in an interview with Reuters) about the need for holding a presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine by the end of the year caused more resonance. However, the text published by Reuters is not a classic interview (with questions and answers), but an article where Kellogo, American, Russian and Ukrainian "sources" are cited anonymously.

The first thing to keep in mind in connection with the statements of Kit Kellogus is not a political instruction, but an opinion expressed in an interview. But once he said about it, then it is necessary for someone and for some reason. The second is an important circumstance. He did not say that the elections in Ukraine must be held by the end of the year. He tied the elections in Ukraine to the ceasefire agreements and in general to the ceasefire negotiations.

And this is what matters, not just a wish (or requirement?) To hold an election in Ukraine. It is good that Kellogo understands that we have a law that prohibits elections during the war and that the election requires ceasefire. But there are a number of risks of election tying in Ukraine to the negotiation process to end the war in Ukraine. And it is bad that Kellogo does not take this into account. The Reuters article mentions these risks (citing an anonymous source in the Ukrainian government).

The third fundamental circumstance. Elections in Ukraine (both presidential and parliamentary, and local) will inevitably take place as soon as the war is over. At the same time, it will take some time to prepare for the elections (not less than 3-4 months, and according to experts - not less than half a year). The problem is not in the absence of elections, but in the continuation of the war. The simplest explanation is that this topic is popular with Republicans, especially Trump supporters.

As early as 2023, Senator Lindsey Graham (Republican and Trump supporter) spoke for elections in Ukraine even during the war. Then it caused a splash of emotions in our country and a violent debate about the possibility of elections during the war. The study of public opinion showed that the vast majority of Ukrainians were against the elections during the war. President Zelensky also agreed with this position.

As a result, the presidential elections in Ukraine were postponed for the period after the end of the war. But Trump's supporters remain popular. And Kit Kellogo also tells the Reuters agency that "most democratic countries are holding elections during the war. " The statement is very controversial, but significant if General Kelloggus voices it.

Undoubtedly, the topic of elections in Ukraine is violated in connection with the negotiations on the end of the war in Ukraine, which is said by Kit Kelloga himself. He, however, does not say that Russia is broken by Russia. But in the Reuters article, this version is discussed, and not unreasonably. I have no doubt that Russia is provoked by Russia. And it seems that Americans do not quite understand this game of the Kremlin, once they are based on such a topic.

Can the topic of elections be an element of pressure on Ukraine, both from the United States and from the Russian Federation? Of course, perhaps, especially from the Russian Federation. Given the moods in the Trump administration, the US can also join this pressure. Therefore, our negotiators need to consider this scenario and prepare for neutralization of provocations on the Russian side.

First, the Kremlin will try to impose on the Americans thesis of the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities and the need to hold elections during the war. However, the elections during the war split Ukrainians under political camps and weaken our resistance to Russian aggression. The risk of political destabilization during the elections or by their results may also occur. Given all the problems of the election during the war, their results can always be questioned.

In particular, it can also be done in the Kremlin to continue the war against Ukraine. Therefore, in no way can you agree to the elections during the war, and even at the request of Russia. Secondly, if the elections in Ukraine are the subject of agreements with Russia, then the Kremlin is very likely to require the pro-Russian political forces in this election, including Medvedchuk. You can imagine what reaction it will cause in Ukraine.

And it is unlikely that Ukraine will agree to the Kremlin's requirement. In turn, Russia can use this refusal to accusate Ukraine, which Kiev disrupts agreements and peace talks. And this situation will be used to provoke acute contradictions between the US and Ukraine in the negotiation process and put us before Trump. That is why the Kremlin's "trap trap" is about the topic of elections. And this trap should be warned in advance by US negotiators.

Third, there is a potential risk in connection with the three-stage approach of the Americans to peace talks (first an agreement on ceasefire, then elections in Ukraine, and in the third-a "longer agreement"). It is not paradoxical, but Ukraine will fully suit the ceasefire and exchange of prisoners.

But Russia wants to conclude a "longer agreement", a peace treaty in which Ukraine intends to compel Ukraine to obligations to recognize the Russian status over the territories that the Russian Federation has occupied and annexed in Ukraine, to neutral status and refusal of claims for NATO entry , before demilitarization (reduction of the Armed Forces several times) and "denacification". Naturally, Ukraine categorically does not suit this approach.

However, I doubt that the Kremlin will agree to the "truce" at the time of peace talks. During the war against Ukraine (since 2014), Putin has always used military pressure on the negotiation process. In my opinion, the topic of elections will not be the main one in peace talks. And it should not be too afraid. But it is impossible to ignore it. It is necessary to neutralize tactical traps from the Russians both before and during peace talks.