Stop the offensive and beat on the rear: how Ukraine and the event to return the initiative in the war with Russia

The next worst moment in the war Ukraine experienced - Western aid returned to a positive track, notes blogger Yuri Bogdanov. The nearest task is to stop the enemy's offensive, remote - to return the initiative. Optimism is usually based on two formats of belief: in the future it will be better or now and in the future could be much worse. During such a large -scale war as ours, it is very good to focus the second. This also works when evaluating what a victory for Ukraine is.

Putin's purpose has not changed - to destroy Ukraine's sovereignty. That is, victory for Russia is the destruction of Ukrainian statehood or the capture of Ukraine under the full control over the model of Belarus. Only powerful pressure on mode can stop it. We started this war as an outsider. Over the last 10 years, Russia has spent 25 times more on defense, its economy has been greater 10 times, the population was 3. 5.

Integration into the global chains of production and supply allowed Putin to think that a full -scale war would pass, as it was with Georgia and Crimea. Actually, given these factors, the Blitzkrig Scenario in Ukraine could be real in the silence of the world. And so for us victory begins from the moment when Ukraine retains its sovereignty, the ability to choose its path of development and build a model of security. There are different scenarios here.

This war has already passed several stages: invasion and the first successes of the Russian Federation; rollback from the north; creeping promotion of the Russian Federation in the east and south due to the advantage in artillery and aviation; Armed Forces of the Armed Forces 2022; creeping offensive of the Russians; Attempting to the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces; The new creeping offensive of the Russians, which is still ongoing.

All we have seen, except for the jerks 2022, is cycles when one of the parties enjoys the advantage received at the moment. And what is happening now is just about it. "Thanks to the" very long search for courage and determination by European governments, unauthorized delay with the supply of weapons on the side of the United States, inhibition with mobilization we have now Ukraine is at the bottom of its capabilities, Putin's Russia is at peak. Accordingly, we see what we see. But.

The main goods that Russia now trade is bluff and fear. No new benefits that they would not have at the beginning of the war are formed. Their successes were possible mainly due to the failure of Western assistance in artillery and air defense. When Russia was able to turn its hypothetical advantage into a real success factor. Yes, the time lost by us and the allies did not pass so simple.

The Russians have very significant tactical successes, but to such "fun", as it happened with Kherson we have 2022 or with the Kharkiv region, they have far. Although there will be no positive dynamics on the front in May and June, the braking lag works. Now it will have to be recovered. In order to regain the initiative on the battlefield, Ukraine and our partners will have to re -form a technological advantage.

However, this is the main thing for us - in recent months we have returned the dynamics of Ukraine's assistance to a positive trend. The real projectile hunger is about to end, with the mobilization of the Crivo-Koso, but the situation is gradually resolved. Accordingly, in Russia there will be very little time to realize its current advantage in truly great results on the battlefield. And now for Ukraine the main tactical tasks will be: it is on this that Ukraine is now working.