From 2-3 weeks to 12 years: why no experts on war in Ukraine do not come true

How soon will the bloody war that Russia solved against Ukraine? This issue is concerned about the world from the very beginning of a full -scale invasion. Experts, politicians, military are making forecasts and assumptions for one and a half years, changing the dates from "2-3 weeks" to decades. The first "official" forecasts on the completion of the Russian-Ukrainian war were voiced by the former adviser to the Presidential Office Alexei Arestovich.

His famous phrase about "two to three weeks" became a meme. The forecasts of the former adviser of the OP did not come true, and in April 2023 he confessed that he deliberately mislead everyone to make it impossible to panic at the beginning of the war. In March 2022, when Ukraine's representatives flew to Turkish Ankara to discuss with the Russians variants of peaceful hostile settlement, Arestovich said that there are two options for the end of the war.

At that time, he thought that the war would end soon, because the enemy ends with the resource required for the ground attack of Kiev, Kharkiv and Chernihiv, and the sanctions are about to "end" the economy of the aggressor country. "Negotiations go successfully. It says both our side and Russian and outsiders. Then the war quickly end - weeks of two.

If there is a second attempt to declare some Kherson People's Republic on their part, try to step there, take Mariupol, something In the area of ​​the OOS, then everything will return to its circles - plus two weeks. And then the ending - the middle, the end of April, " - said Arestovich. The forecasts of the former adviser of the OP did not come true, and in April 2023 he confessed that he deliberately mislead everyone to make it impossible to panic at the beginning of the war.

After the success of the Ukrainian army in 2022, the head of GUR Kirill Budanov claimed that the Armed Forces would enter the Crimea by the end of spring 2023, and the fighting would end by the end of the summer of 2023. After the success of the Ukrainian army in 2022, the head of GUR Kirill Budanov claimed that the Armed Forces would enter the Crimea by the end of spring 2023, and the fighting would end by the end of the summer of 2023.

The rate was made at the spring-summer counter-offensive, and the forecasts were encouraging. Western experts did not deny the de -occupation of Crimea in the summer of 2023. Former US Army Commander in Europe, General Ben Gogeges thought that the script is quite working if the Ukrainian army receives the necessary western weapons. However, weapons were agreed slowly, and the events on the front were not as active as expected.

GUR admitted that the prognosis voiced by Budanov was only one of the possible scenarios that change depending on the circumstances, in particular, the successes of the Armed Forces. The reasoning that the war can end in 2023 continued to sound, and in the Western media actively wrote about various options for cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, in particular in the Korean Scenario. Official Kyiv excluded the frost of conflict.

In June, the adviser to the head of OP Mikhail Podolyak said that the Russian war against Ukraine will end probably earlier than 2024. But there are two conditions for this - the successes of the Armed Forces, and "legal problems" for Putin, which, according to Podolyak, will be realized before the election races in the United States will begin.

And in July 2023, US President Joe Biden expressed the opinion that the war in Ukraine would not last for years, since the President of the Russian Federation will eventually realize that this is not in the interests of his country. In the fall of 2022, Viktor Orban stated that the fighting in Ukraine could last until 2030, and the European Union will collapse in the next decade.

For the first time, the authorities stated that Ukrainians need to prepare for a "marathon, not a sprint", referring to long -term fighting, in August this year, when the successes of the Armed Forces were much restrained than expected. At the same time, Budanov continued to say that the war for exhaustion was impossible.

In Russia, there are no resources to conduct active fighting for years, since the enemy's MPC does not have time to produce ammunition, so the Kremlin tries to buy them in other countries. Some minor notes have been heard for more than a year and a half of full -scale fighting by Western partners of Kyiv. The war on exhaustion was talked in Hungary.

In the fall of 2022, Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that hostilities in Ukraine can last until 2030, and the European Union will fall apart in the next decade. German Chancellor Olaf Soltz said he did not believe in the rapid end of the war, and former Defense Minister Ben Volles urged not to look at the events through pink glasses and doubted that peace would come to the end of this year.

In September, the German Parliament provided military support to Ukraine by 2032, and this was another reason for speculation that the war would last for decades. According to Major General Bundesver, the head of the Situation Center in Ukraine in the German Defense Ministry Christian Freuding in the German government expects that the war in Ukraine will last about 9 years.

All this time, the Bundesver will supply the Armed Forces, providing support for the Army of Ukraine with everything you need. Asked when and how the Ukrainian victory became obvious, Major General said that this would be achieved when the territory of Ukraine would be restored in 1991, including Crimea. Arestovich at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, in parallel with the forecast of "two to three weeks", also discussed a protracted conflict.

In April 2022, in an interview with journalist Mark Feigin, he compared Ukraine with Israel and stated that regular clashes between Russia and Ukraine could last until 2035 with periodic rest. Today, either side has no weapons that could dramatically change the course of events at the front. "What do those who reflect on the end of the war? Sergey Kuzan cooperation. According to the expert, there is no clear designation of what the war should end.

Truce or capitulation? For Ukraine, the best scenario would be Moscow's surrender, then control over nuclear weapons would have passed to the international community. One of the important criteria on which the assumption of the end of the war is based on the front. According to Kuzan, today either of the parties have no weapons that could dramatically change the course of events at the front. Another criterion is the Russian economy, as well as IPSO, which the Kremlin spends tremendous funds.

"There are different understanding of the end of the war, and hence different predictions. There are two currents in American politics. Some say that Russia cannot win and we need to do everything. in the defensive sphere. In the first case, Ukraine's support is so as not to be able to win the Russian Federation. The second is the support of Ukraine so that Russia loses. So far we see the first option, "the expert says.

According to a representative of the Center for Army Research, Conversion and Disarmament Michael Samus, there are several phases of war that experts say when they build forecasts. For example, the de -occupation of the Ukrainian territories will continue in 2024. Much will depend on weapons, in particular, F-16 fighters that are able to change the nature of hostilities. But the confrontation can take decades.

"Russia does not recognize its defeat in the de -occupation of the territories of Ukraine. And therefore the war will end when the Putin regime will cease to exist and transformations within the country that will not allow the Russian Federation to conduct combat against us. Sanctions work inefficiently. Russia earns huge money for long War, "says the focus Samus.

We will remind, the adviser to the head of the OP Mikhail Podolyak said that Russia is trying to stop a full-scale invasion of Ukraine for 4-5 months to pause and prepare for a new escalation. The focus was in detail whether the Russian army could take a six -year break to continue the war. Focus also wrote that Russia does not leave the hope of producing shock drones like Shahd. The plans to the aggressor country, by the summer of 2025, to collect 6,000 drones-Kamikadze.