More weapons for Ukraine. What are the consequences of a conflict of Israel and Palestine

It is likely that in the near future we will see its next phase - the land operation of the Israeli troops (Tsagalu) in the Gaza Sector against Hamas. Much will depend on how effective it will be, how much the victims will be and how the Arab world will react to this operation. Even according to the Israeli military, this operation will take several weeks or even two to three months. So, at least by the end of the year, the war in the Gaza and Israel sector will still be in the hot phase.

Most likely, it will be a war of Tsagalus with Hamas and Hezbolla, as well as with other Arabic paramilitarian groups not only in the Gaza sector, but also on the border of Israel with Lebanon. At the same time, the outburst of anti -Israeli sentiment will continue (it is likely that it will increase depending on the development of events in the Gaza Sector), and not only in the Arab world. Of course, there is a risk of Iran's involvement in the war against Israel.

Therefore, the United States unfolds their military group in the Eastern Mediterranean. This is to restrain the Iranian threat. Obviously, Americans do not want to participate directly in this war and will neutralize the risks of expanding the scale of the current crisis in the Middle East. And then the most difficult is the attempt of Israel to reformat the safety mode in the Gaza Sector is highly probability because of its demilitarization and extrusion from Hamas.

In parallel, Israel's intelligence services will start hunting Hamas leaders around the world, seeking to destroy this organization. Whether this is possible is also a big question that has not been answered yet. Even if the top of Hamas is destroyed and this organization itself is displaced from the Gaza Sector, a new radical anti -Israeli organization of Arab youth may emerge in its place.

The international community, including the United States, will push Israel to restore peace in Palestine and to peace talks with Palestinians. That is, there will be another attempt to repeat what has happened more than once. And the scenario is already offered the same - the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

And all these efforts will again get into one insoluble problem - who will be in power in this state? The optimal, seemingly scenario, is the coming to power in Palestine of moderate politicians. But these are not even visible in Palestine. In any case, their coming to power in Palestine or in the Gaza sector is practically impossible.

And if the Gaza Sector or an independent Palestinian state will again be controlled by anti -Israeli fighters (and no matter how they will be called), then a new war between Palestinians and Israel will be inevitable. Some experts and politicians offer another scenario - the demilitarization of the Gaza Sector under international control (after the special operation of Tsagalus) with the gradual restoration of Palestinian autonomy, led by moderate Palestinian politicians.

If this experiment works, then negotiations can be started to create a Palestinian state. This scenario is criticized. It seems utopian to many. However, it at least theoretically gives a peaceful alternative to the future. From the possible political consequences of the current crisis in the Middle East, I would also have completed the end of the Netanyag.

Not at once, but after the relative stabilization of the current Netanyaga crisis, it will be forced to leave the post of Prime Minister of Israel. He is directly responsible for the failure with the unwillingness of Israel to the Hamas attack and for the internal split of Israeli society. But will the split in the political elite of Israel and Israeli society stop afterwards? For Ukraine, delaying the crisis in the Middle East will have ambiguous consequences.

On the one hand, it is already distracting international attention from the war between Russia and Ukraine, and this trend will continue. There is also a possible reduction in the scale of assistance to Ukraine, including the military, by the United States. However, we will now go in one defense and financial package with Israel. This may somewhat weaken the resistance of radical Trumpists to resolve the issue of financing Ukraine support next year.

The current situation can finally push the US and the EU to significantly expand the production of ammunition and weapons. There is a chance for warming relations between Israel and Ukraine. But it is not necessary to count on a positive change in relations with the countries of the so -called global south. The current Middle Eastern crisis has been another reason for the aggravation and complication of relations between the West and many countries in the global south.