Battle of Crimea: Where are the weaknesses of Russia and which weapon needed Ukraine to return the peninsula

Recently, the chief scout of the country Kirill Budanov again mentioned publicly about the possibility of liberation of the occupied territories - Crimea and Donbass. And if the full -scale invasion was first talked about the de -occupation of the East, now the peninsula. The focus understood that it is decisive in this process.

"Everyone who once owned Crimea said loudly and clearly that the peninsula was an impregnable fortress, and absolutely everyone lost it," said the head of the Main Department of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov in a recent interview with the French edition of Liberation. He again repeated that the temporarily occupied Donbas would be more difficult to return than Crimea.

It is known that last year the Ukrainian military chiefs, in particular, and Budanov predicted the exit of Ukrainian troops to the administrative borders of Crimea and the liberation of the peninsula in the summer of 2023. But that didn't happen. In 2024, many became more cautious in statements. However, the release of Crimea remains an urgent issue.

Currently, the Russian Federation uses the Ukrainian Crimea as a military bridgehead for its military aggression from southern Ukraine, firing Ukrainian cities from the peninsula. As for the Donbass, now all the attention is drawn to this direction. After the Ukrainian forces were released from Avdiivka and the promotion of the Russian army further, the main thing for the Armed Forces was to stop this offensive and maintain positions.

"American warlord John Pershing once said that the battle wins logistics. Look Logistics through Crimea, and which network logistical is connected by Donbass with Russia, there is a difference," says focus the head of the Security Programs of the Center of Globalism "Pavlo Lakychuk. Since the Soviet Union, so did Ukraine have a branched system of relations with Russia in the east, with industrial regions, Donbass.

There are countless roads and tracks that bind as blood vessels, occupied territories with the territory of the enemy. Forces, forces, reserves, rear, can be diversified by many variants of routes, they cannot be cut by all. " It is said that in the east of Ukraine there is a continuous line of supply, to which the Russian army can access on either side. In Crimea, the situation is different, more limited. "Crimea is the peninsula.

It is important to him: Kerch Bridge, Airborne Ships, Aviation, Kerch's Curr Crossing. These are the logistics chains used by Russia in the Crimea, and they are very easy to cut. Obviously, this is based on General Budanov's forecasts," Lakichuk adds. - The so -called Kerch bridge plays an important role in providing the entire southern enemy group. There is also a land corridor from Taganrog to Mariupol, but it has limited capacity.

In addition, this line of communication runs through the frontal area. Both tanks and trucks go-it is clear who is the owner. That is, the main route is still through the bridge. " Experts say, when it comes to the de -occupation of Crimea, it is necessary to destroy the military potential of the Russian Federation: warehouses and bases, command points and arsenals, air defense systems located in the territory of the entire occupied peninsula.

"It is necessary to get rid of the Russian contingent in Crimea, logistics. This was repeatedly spoken by the well -known General Ben Goveges, who insists that Crimea can be released in the short term and relatively small resources, but three important components are needed," he says Focus Military Expert Vladislav Seleznev. "On this, the American General has grounds his answers for the last one and a half years," Seleznyov adds. "From time to time he called specific dates when it can be done.

the abstracts. He always said that this plan for the liberation of Crimea is quite realistic to implement with timely and full supply of the necessary weapons and equipment. Unfortunately, neither F16 nor long -range missiles is still gone. The second mission, after the destruction of the Kerch Bridge - The gradual destruction of all military facilities in Crimea and Sevastopol. Their independent experts were counted on the 232 peninsula.

" In order to go to Crimea, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have only two routes. The first direction is the continuation of punching the Ukrainian army units from a robot to Tokmak and further to Melitopol. On the way, these cities will have to be released. Bypassing them, leaving some groups of the enemy in the rear, and moving south, it is impossible. In general, you will have to go to Genichesk about 160 kilometers.

But now heavy fights are underway near the robot, it and settlements are being fired at artillery and mortars. In general, the situation in the area remains extremely tense. The second direction is to force the Dnieper from the right to the left bank in Kherson region, in order to further advance to Armenian, located on the isthmus between the Crimea. Then the route will be half shorter.

But the difficulty is that you will have to force a large water crossing, that is, to ship the heavy equipment required for a large -scale ground operation through the river. "Currently, the Ukrainian army is trying to expand the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper. The depth, according to various estimates, is from three to eight kilometers.

The bridgeheads are several: the area of ​​the Antonov road bridge, the area of ​​the Antonov Railway Bridge, the area In different parts of the left bank, our soldiers already exist. Not only marines, but also units of border forces and territorial defense operate. to the left bank.

In which way to move from the right to the left bank all these systems, provided that all four bridges that had previously connected the right and left bank of the Dnieper, from the autumn of 2022 were destroyed by the Russian army. Under such conditions, talk about that that we can establish constant logistics in only one case-the pontoon-bridge crossing. But the distance between the shores in this part is about a thousand meters. " The expert says it is extremely difficult to engineer mission.

"I say it as a specialist and a military engineer," he continues. "The second task: how to protect this crossing from the influence of enemy artillery and aviation? The enemy will obviously try to destroy it. In principle, there are options for solving this problem. Among them: to expand: to expand a bridgehead to a depth of up to 25 kilometers. This is not possible on the left bank of the artillery and armored vehicles.

In addition, to protect the pontoon-bridge crossing from the impact of aviation you can have your own aviation. There are no official confirmations on specific dates when the Ukrainian army is joined by F16. " Both these options are complex and will require significant human and technical resources. During summer advancement, it became obvious that it was necessary to move under aviation bombardment.

At the same time, the head of the security programs of the Center for Globalism "XXI" says that the Russian Federation increases its presence in the Crimea. "This is the part of the Crimea that separates the Kerch appendix from the main peninsula," he explains. "There are also defense lines there and this indicates that the enemy allows the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Crimean Peninsula. lines of beach defense.

" In addition, it was reported that the Ukrainian guerrillas noticed a large number of new Russian soldiers in the temporarily occupied Janka, including Wagner PECs. "Crimea is currently used as a transport and logistics hub, repair and restoration base, where the repair of damaged equipment is being repaired. There is treatment and rehabilitation The enemy usually uses a wealthy crossing, as well as large landing ships and other ships that work in the interests of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Only a small part is carried out at the expense of the Kerch Bridge. Therefore, so nervously the Russians perceive the information when our drones of Kamikadze work and the hostile ships. So the enemy loses its opportunities to logistically support the Russian grouping of troops. " The expert also says that Sevastopol remains the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, respectively, some ships are stationed there, except for maritime base missiles.

These ships are concentrated in a bay in Novorossiysk. "However, the functionality of the main headquarters and planning of military operations, the provision of some ships remains in Sevastopol," he adds. "Like other military facilities in Crimea and Sevastopol, relevant to the implementation of Russian aggression. " Also in the Crimea, hostile planes fly from military airports, which make rocket strokes and strike in the managed aviation in the southern Ukraine.

"From the landfill in the Cape Chauda area near Balaklava, Shahhaned, which in fact every night, impresses at the depth of our country," explains military expert Vladislav Seleznev. Pavel Lakichuk is convinced that the General Staff of Ukraine is developing plans for the liberation of both Crimea and Donbass, as well as all Ukrainian territories. Which one realizes and when - it is difficult to say. "Now the Armed Forces are working in strategic defense operation," he adds.