What to do with Russia after Putin: how to get an empire from the habit of expanding

One side states that Russian history and political culture are guilty of or, easier, the cause of Russian aggression is unique Russian features. The other party states that the causes are not purely Russian, but typical of the behavior of certain types of states, regimes, societies and leaders. Not surprisingly, historians of Russia and Ukraine usually get into the first camp, and political scientists who are engaged in a comparative approach - the second.

Not surprisingly, the first camp does not see simple decisions about the current behavior of Russia precisely because it is only a continuation of the age -old model of Russian behavior inspired by a constant Russian soul. After all, nations and cultures cannot simply escape from the comprehensive chains of their history and culture simply because it would be profitable for them, especially if they really believe in their spiritual uniqueness.

On the contrary, sociologists are often more optimistic about the prospects of change in Russia. Other countries have abandoned centuries -old authoritarianism, why not do Russia? This may not be easy, but it is certainly possible, if there is a correct set of measures and under the appropriate conditions. Germany Wilhelm became a Weimar Germany, which became Nazi Germany, which eventually turned into democratic Germany.

Why would Russians who consider themselves unique, as the Germans did, not give up their obsessive ideas and become an average nation? So, who is right? Unfortunately, both points of view are correct, which is why there is no simple answer to the problem of Russian imperialism. Consider the next two counterfacts. First, imagine that tomorrow Putin and his mode will disappear. Will Russia stop automatically? No.

Will this desire automatically lead to imperialist policy? Probably not, but the danger will always exist until the Russian political culture remains imperialist. Secondly, imagine that tomorrow the imperialist political culture will disappear, and everything else will remain the same. Would Putin bring his troops from Ukraine and renounced imperialism? Of course not.

Will he continue his genocide war and possibly spread it to the Baltic countries, Moldova and Poland? It is very likely that yes, although perhaps not immediately. Thus, Russia suffers from two mutual syndromes: the imperialist political culture that promotes imperialism, and the imperialist neo -Nazi regime that promotes imperialist political culture through coercion and propaganda.

How can you break this vicious circle? Since Russian history is the history of imperialism and imperial political culture, it will not be easy to break this circle. Ideally, Russia should be humiliating in the war against Ukraine. The defeat will discredit the regime and its policy - and will start destroying the culture that has made the war possible.

According to the example of Nazi Germany: the complete defeat was destroyed by the Nazi regime, but not a political culture, which took three decades to change. If you do not take into account the complete defeat, partial defeat can help, although the regime and many Russians will probably say that everything that has happened - the evidence of the wickedness of the West, Russophobia of Ukraine, the temporary failures of Russian politicians and the urgent need of imperial regime and thinking.

Most of Russia's closest neighbors understand that Russia's imperialist inclinations will not disappear in the near future. They will have to live with a neighbor who desires the territory and tries to buy it. Thus, the likelihood of preserving imperialism in Russian consciousness and politics means that if the event does not want to seek complete victory, he will have to be satisfied with the best of the worse: restraint.

Russia's neighbors - former Soviet non -Russian republics - must be armed in military plan and be supported economically to serve as an effective sanitary border.

The solution is easy to imagine, but given the unwillingness of the West to spend resources to solve foreign policy problems, he will have to set priorities and devote his efforts to the countries that are most important for his own safety and survival: Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus From Russia after her authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko leaves from politics.

After all, all three countries will either have to join the European Union and NATO, or get sufficient intensification to restrain the Russian attack. But in this depressing picture there may be a glimpse of hope. Perhaps, using the example of bad management of the USSR Leonid Brezhnev, Putin will quickly turn Russia into an unviable state, society and economy, thereby undermining its ability to expand and win wars.