Ukraine caused a great operational defeat of the Russian Federation and broke the course of war, Putin is close to the "deadly mistake" - map and ISW evaluation

Its analysts say that the new success of Ukraine "was the result of skillful planning and implementation of the campaign, which included efforts to maximize the use of Western weapons such as HIMARS. " However, although Western weapons were necessary, they would not have been enough to ensure the success of the Armed Forces.

It is about a carefully planned and well -conducted campaign, in which Ukraine managed to mislead the army of the Russian Federation and draw more attention to the counter -offensive in the Kherson region. An important role was played by thoughtful attacks on Russian land communication lines (GLOC) in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The video of Ukraine's liberation day has put an end to the prospects for Russia's achievement of stated goals in Donetsk region, experts of ISW are convinced.

They remind that after the retreat from Kiev, the very capture of Lugansk and Donetsk regions of the Russian Federation called the primary purpose. For this purpose, the Russian campaign was focused on the offensive on the axis from Izium through Severodonetsk to the Donetsk district. The attacks were aimed at capturing Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Slavyansk, Bakhmut and Kramatorsk, and then - to enter the western borders of Donetsk region.

However, after the capture of Severodonetsk on June 24 and Lisichansk on July 3 - after a long and extremely costly for the Russian Army, the occupiers were no longer able to capture large settlements and large areas. However, holding positions in the area of ​​Izium until recently, the Russians continued to threaten Ukrainian defenders of Slavyansk and maintained the opportunity to return to the attack in the northern sections of this axis.

Now, the loss of Izium is jeopardizing the initial plan of the Russian campaign at this stage of the war and guarantees that the Russian Federation will not be able to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Bakhmut or in the Donetsk area (if such advancement will happen at all). Even Bakhmut's capture is unlikely, ISW experts say.

In their view, now Russian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and in the Donetsk area "have lost some real operational importance for Moscow and simply spend some of the extremely limited combat capacity preserved by Russia. " However, there is no reason to believe that the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces declared in the Kherson region was only tricks. The Ukrainian forces were attacking and successful at several important points on the western bank of the Dnieper.

In addition, Ukraine has involved a significant fighting power in this direction and concentrated a large part of the Western high -precision systems of great range - it was unlikely to be done only to distract the Russian forces to the area.

This means that against the backdrop of the Armed Forces pressure in the Kherson region, combined with a rapid counter -offensive in the Kharkiv army of the Russian Federation, it was "before the terrible dilemma of time and space", the analysts of ISW state. Russia is probably lacking in reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defense line along the Oskil River.

Common sense would require the invaders to remove the forces from other sectors of the front to establish defensive borders east of this river and try to hold the border of the Luhansk region or the most close line as possible. However, Russian troops in the Bakhmut and Donetsk area continue offensive operations, are surprised by ISW experts, "not knowing" that they are threatening their forces in the Luhansk region.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin risks to make a widespread but deadly mistake, too long, postponing a reinforcement forces in Lugansk direction, thus risking [to fail]" protection "of Kherson or offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk - but not deleting In a timely manner, their troops are on [the necessary] positions for "protection" from the continuation of Ukrainian attacks in the Luhansk region.

" The efforts of the Armed Forces seem to be aimed at putting Putin in front of such a dilemma and "gaining practically from any decision he made", concludes the ISW analysts. On the other hand, they emphasize, the current counter -offensive will not yet put an end to the war. The fast campaign of the Armed Forces in the northeast of Ukraine will eventually end, and the Russians will form a new defensive line and may even draw local counter-counter-counter-counter-countercurses.

To complete the liberation of its territory, Ukraine will also have to carry out other counter -offensive operations, perhaps even a few. "The war will probably continue in 2023," ISW predicts. However, "Ukraine has broken the course of this war in its favor," the experts of the institute state.

In their opinion, now the Armed Forces will most likely be increasingly "dictated by the place and nature of great fighting", whereas Russia will increasingly "inadequately respond to the growing physical and psychological pressure of Ukraine in consistent military campaigns, if Moscow does not find a way Take the initiative.

" Meanwhile, a counter -offensive in the Kharkiv region has already hit the Kremlin's relations with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, even more removing Putin from the Higher Military Command.

The Kremlin Prescribe Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin had postponed all his meetings with the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry and representatives of the Russian defense industry in Sochi-"a strange decision in the conditions of military-operational and defense-industrial crisis, which Russia collided".