Trump as a new Prigogine: What showed Russia's first response to US President's ultimatum

That is why our main task now is to identify and agree with the United States our "red lines". But at the same time it is necessary to assume that joining NATO in a clear time period is categorically closed. What will Putin's reaction be? Before trying to answer this question, you should pay attention to one important thing: the US has a consensus that any action does not envisage Putin's regime. At the same time, Putin himself, as a paranoid, is afraid that this consensus can be broken.

Therefore, before the inauguration of Trump, as before the war in 2022, he gathered the Radbez so that his entourage once again swore to him in loyalty. Putin's logic is as follows: he believes that in case of abandonment of US ultimatum, the Trump's office may decide that the medium -term goal will be the replacement of Putin himself and the destruction of his regime. І це один з його найбільших страхів на цей день.

Although today such a radical course causes more skepticism than optimism. Але повернімося до можливих дій Путіна. In such difficult cases, the strategy of the Russian leader in such difficult cases: he is waiting. He is the rat that does not rush to the enemy, but is clogged into the corner and waits for the situation to change.

Putin is also clearly not ready for an open conflict with Trump now, because now his strategy is to negotiate: "To break the first round of negotiations with the hands of Ukraine. " This, in view of everything, is understood in Washington. And, apart from other factors, that is why Trump allowed himself to speak with Putin not as an equal, but as the head of the third world. Yesterday and today in the information plan showed that the Kremlin was not ready for such a rigid ultimatum.

That is why the strategy of actions of the Russians is as follows: military (ultra-patriots) will blow hysteria that Russia cannot behave with Russia, and the Kremlin will remain silent and wait for the opportunity to switch the topic. The fact that they do not close the mouth to war, indirectly confirms that Putin is not ready for negotiations. Why did such a rigid ultimatum appear? Trump cannot help but understand that under such conditions, Putin is unlikely to be ready to negotiate.

But he also understands that only raising so rates, he can calmly explain why he failed to stop the war in one day. The Trump team understands that with a great deal of likelihood, the Russians will (more precisely repeat) their previous unacceptable conditions: and the United States will not be able to go. So here they play ahead. What Trump did not expect is that he will become not just quoted in the Russian space, but will turn into a kind of "overseas jerk", a new truth.

And his main message, who himself did not want to launch himself - is that "Putin is - the Essalo. Net Putin - will not be war. " So far, this message lived only in the liberal community. Trump "broke" a dam for a large part of a society that is for Putin, but against war (such as approximately 45%). This will be a new headache for the Kremlin in the next months. How will events develop next? Actually, as Trump said. Unfortunately, the likelihood of effective negotiations looks ghostly.

Two basic factors of war stopping - the loss of China's assistance and the collapse of oil capabilities of the Russian Federation - is only a distant future. Therefore, Putin, with a great deal of likelihood, will risk playing Va-Bank. However, if everything goes behind Trump's scenario, closer to winter it will start to exhale and China is unlikely to help. The likelihood of a rapid end of the war is.